jump to navigation

Should I Go or Should I Stay ? January 15, 2022

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , , , ,
add a comment

Jan. 14, 2022 –Apologies to pop culture but if anyone is saying that they got this market figured out, run, don’t walk away from them.  Consolidating price formations are not easy to figure out and they really shouldn’t be.  Right now there is a case to be made for Bearish and Bullish, but for, now neither is that terribly clear.

click on chart to enlarge

I remain in the camp that says price action is in a consolidating trading range.  Yes, the NASDAQ Composite Index did close below my 14860 support level but then pop right up above it on Friday.  Also I note that larger volumes are coming in on up bars like on Monday of this week.  (“buying the dips”?)

So what to do in this situation?   I rotate out of weakness (Technology & Growth) toward what’s doing better (strength).  That would be Energy and Financials / Banks.  South American sectors are showing early signs of a rebound too.

Things to keep in mind:  Fourth quarter earnings are starting and the ongoing Covid and Ukrainian situations.  Inflation is a ‘pesto issue’ IMHO because did anyone really think that interest rates could stay this low, for this long without increasing?  Prices will be going up, but likely not as much as the current rate of increase.  The Fed’s mandate of full employment has been met; next step is to keep inflation to around 2%.  Since we’ve been increasing at a 7% rate that means increasing rates to slow things down.   Hence Energy and Financials like that environment.

I’m about 75% invested and watching for some news item to throw a monkey wrench into this equilibrium.  There are a lot of moving parts out there and the investors are not sure if they should go, or stay.   Have a good week.         ………..  Tom  …………

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

Flirting with a Bottom January 8, 2022

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , , , ,
add a comment

Jan. 7, 2022 – This report will be short and to the point since I’ve got a lot of things going on.  To start with let’s look at the market overall; chart below.  Market Sentiment = Bearish, Money and Volume Flow = Bearish and Price Strength is Weak.  Overall not a good environment for investing.

click on chart to enlarge

But as I look to the volume bars at the bottom I see that volume has been dropping off over the past 3 days.  To me this indicates selling is also dropping off and we now have to consider “No Demand” (i.e. no appetite for buying) right now.  As the market flirts with touching the previous low near the 14860 level there are 3 scenarios:

  1.  Investors getting concerned even more and we drop below the Support level.
  2. We enter a trading range where prices consolidate for a few weeks; zig-zag.
  3. The market bounces off the Support level forming a triple bottom pattern and heads back higher.

My preference at this time is scenario #2, a consolidation pattern.  This will give the market time to sort out Covid, geo & domestic politics and the upcoming earnings for the 4th quarter.  I can’t help thinking that a good chunk of this selling right after the first of the year was related to taxes.  Sell & book those profits and reload while delaying long term gains for 12 more months.  Just a feeling, especially with how well the markets have done over the past 12-24 months.

The Short Term Sector Strength table is shown below.  What got me here was that Technology is at the bottom.  OK in the short term but not so much in the long term. (note ‘Bear’ Treasury bonds are inverse to the bond)

I’m keeping a close eye on the 14860 level on the NASDAQ Composite Index.  That has shown support twice before & that’s important.  Have a Good Week.   ………  Tom  ……….

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

The Year in Review January 2, 2022

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , , , ,
add a comment

Dec. 31, 2021 – First off . .  Happy New Year !  Since this was a very low volume and shortened trading week I’ll suspend my normal market comments this week and go right to the chart of the NASDAQ Composite Index.

click on chart to enlarge

The indicators and price action are looking better but we need to break and close above the 15901 resistance level soon.  Then of course go on to challenge the previous high.  The next 2 weeks will give us an idea if a new bullish trend is beginning or we we’re just falling back into congestion.  Stay tuned. 

The next chart is a relative strength chart of key international indexes for 2021.  (all start at the same 0% point on December 31, 2020; chart courtesy of StockCharts.com, used with permission)

click on chart to enlarge

Now for all of those trading Crypto I decided not to put that on the chart (i.e. ETF GBTC).  The reason is that it was EXTREMELY volatile.  Case in point: starting 12/31/20 at 0%, at peak for the year of +77% on 2/19/21, then -25% for the year on 7/20/21, then back up to +67% for the year on 11/9/21, before finishing at +7% for the entire year overall.  I dare say that the daily volatility in between was exceptional too.  If one trades crypto, one must be exceptionally nimble and have a plan.   (i.e. sure sounds like “day trading” to me . . . . not my style at all)

About the only thing that I can say is that 2022 will likely not be the same as 2021.  I am expecting more volatility in the stock market.  Wishing you success and Good Health in 2022.  ……..  Tom …….

Green Shoots December 24, 2021

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , , , ,
add a comment

Dec. 23, 2021 – At the close for the week (Thursday) we saw the possible beginnings of “Green Shoots” from our indicators.  Now I take this with more than a “grain of salt” due to the low volume with many traders on vacation this week and next.  Thus I wonder just how much of a commitment there is.  I tend to be skeptical until after the New Year.  This was a short week and my comments will be short as well.

click on chart to enlarge

As mentioned I started to plot my new indicator of Market Strength lightly in black on top of Price Strength on the chart.  I’ll go over it in more detail after the first of the year but you’ll kind of get a handle on it even now.

Keeping the past year in perspective, I show the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in the chart below.

click on chart to enlarge it

Over all it was a great year, but just take a look at the 6 “scares” that closed below the 50 day simple moving average.  It was good to “buy the dips and sell the rips” but there will come a time when that will be disastrous.   Thus we need to look at the overall market and not just price actions.  Thus my work on a master multiple indicator to help gauge the market.  BTW, nothing is totally fool prove and works all of the time, but at the hard right edge of the chart it sure helps to have something to use to confirm a position change.  More explanations to come.

In the meantime, enjoy the holidays and get ready for 2022.  I’m thinking that next year will be more challenging than last and it’s a good idea to get prepared.  Take Care.    ….  Tom  ….

COVID Concerns Return December 18, 2021

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , , , ,
add a comment

Dec. 17, 2021 – With the immediate focus off of the FED and a return to concerns about Covid, plus continuing debates about inflation, the market returned to showing weakness this week.  We’re back to the swing lows of 14931 on the NASDAQ Composite Index.  A break above 16626 would be bullish but that might not happen until we get past Christmas.  We sure could use some good news too.

click on chart to enlarge

Most of my indicators on the chart are negative and even “Price Strength” is barely positive.  Not a great environment for stock prospecting.  This is a shortened trading week and volume will drop off the closer we get to Christmas.  But be careful; low volume can be volatile.

After the New Year I’ll be making a few changes to this blog to improve content.  I’ve been working on some overall market strength signals plus I’m considering adding detail to sectors by showing specific ETF’s.  More to come.

The Short Term Sector Strength table is shown below –

That’s about it.  Wishing all that celebrate it a Merry Christmas.     ……….  Tom  ………..

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

Market Consolidation December 11, 2021

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , , , ,
add a comment

Dec. 10, 2021 – It sure looks like this market is in a consolidation phase.  We’ve gone through a period of weakness and bounced back a bit.  Overall, things don’t look that bad but the market is not convinced just yet . . .  and that’s OK.  The chart below shows that weakness and partial recovery with the market concerned about 3 things: Inflation, Covid and the Evergrande bond default.

click on chart to enlarge

The Evergrande default is all about a very large Chinese real estate developer who overbuilt and now can’t make the interest payments on its bonds / loans.  Concerns about it rippling through the Chinese, then Emerging Market economy is what it’s all about.  The Chinese government will (likely) not let that happens.  Next, Covid.  This remains a wild card but there are signs that it may not have an outsized effect on the economy.  It remains a genuine concern and requires our attention.

Lastly, inflation.  The sudden spike upward has caught many by surprise, but it’s really about the sudden surge in demand.  During the past 2 years businesses have throttled back due to lack of demand and a fear of recession.  That was real.  But now demand has quickly increased and the supply chain can’t turn on a dime.  The chart below shows the inflation rates over the past +60 years.  I’ve drawn a line across the current rate to see what happened at that inflation level.

The times of roughly equivalent inflation rates were the mid 1970’s and early 1980’s.  How did the markets hold up during that time and afterward?

In the big picture, market dips but nothing very dramatic.  Of note is that the previous peaks of inflation were preceded by high interest rates and excessive supply, but not excessive demand; a big difference.  This market has come a long way and quickly.  It’s overdue for a breather / consolidation of prices.  Unless Covid spikes up and threatens the economy, this spike of inflation is likely a passing thing.  Demand being greater than supply is very much an economic stimulate.  We’re not likely to slip into a recession, at least not yet.

Have a good week.   ………..   Tom  …………..

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

At The Point December 5, 2021

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , , , ,
add a comment

Dec. 3, 2021 –  At the close Friday we’re at / near an import support level, both from a previous price level and a few other technical prices levels (50 ma, Fibonacci, etc.).  The next couple of days are where we will find out whether the market stops and at least stabilizes or continues to show weakness.

click on chart to enlarge

The most obvious issue is the COVID Omicron strain and the Russian activity on the boarder of Ukraine. “A weak market will react badly to bad news while a strong market will ignore it.”  This market is overvalued and needs a breather even though we’re in a strong seasonal period.  If we can’t hold near this level the next line in the sand for support is the early October lows of 14182.  The VIX remains high indicating more Put buying than Call buying so traders are in full bore hedge mode buying protection.  The other concern is the FED.  Will they cut back (i.e. taper) the purchase of bonds and how much?  This market is addicted to cheap money, no doubt about it.

The pie chart of where the 1500 stocks in the S&P 1500 Index is shown above.  This relates to each stocks price position to its own Bollinger Band (20 day volatility bands).   Not surprising the amount of red, but weakness can also indicate future opportunity.

The short term sector strength table above shows strength in defensive sectors like Utilities, Materials, Financials and Consumer Staples.  Surprisingly Technology, especially Semiconductors, are holding up well.  Be on the lookout for retail sales and a few bell weather earnings reports coming out this week.  This news could influence the market direction in a significant way.

Have a good week & Happy Holidays.     ……….  Tom  ………..

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

Watch For The Reaction November 28, 2021

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , , ,
add a comment

Nov. 26, 2020 –  The Thanksgiving week (in the US) was supposed to be quite and uneventful until new concerns about a new Covid variant came up in South Africa.  So “here we go again”.   Next week will give us a better idea just how serious the Omicron variant could potential be, especially for those who are already vaccinated.  But let’s keep things in perspective.

I start off with a chart weekly of the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) with a longer term +4 years perspective.  I’ve drawn channels that try and capture the “big picture” moves and breaks.   Well . .  we were at the top of the channel and venerable to a correction / drop.  In that case all it takes is bad news and we got it.

click to enlarge

I expect the markets to react poorly Monday morning, but the real “test” will come in the afternoon and the following days when raw emotion settles down and more facts emerge.  The big picture is that this market was venerable to any type of disappointment or bad news, and reacted as such.

The shorter term chart of the broad NASDAQ Composite is shown below.  I note that (in the short term) it has also reacted and is showing weakness, but keep in mind the very low volume late last week due to the holiday and short trading session.  Do we recover from the 15544 level or continue lower to 15198?  I’m thinking a push to 15198; maybe lower.  How this market reacts to this news will tell us just how strong it is underneath.

click on chart to enlarge

Tech sectors continue to lead and it will be interesting to hear about pre-Christmas sales from “Black Friday” shopping on Monday.  A poor sales figure in the US over the Thanksgiving holiday could prove to be a “double whammy” of bad news for this market.  This is a good time to watch and have a plan just in case folks start to abandon ship before the end of the year.

Have a good week and keep an eye open especially over the next 2-3 days.  How the market reacts will provide a good idea of just how strong it is underneath. ………… Tom …………..

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

Still “Chugging Along” November 20, 2021

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , , , ,
add a comment

Nov. 19, 2021 –  This market continues to show strength though the rate of climb has eased off a bit, and that’s OK.  While I’m expecting some back and forth volatility into the end of the year, the general trend should continue to be positive / higher.

click on chart to enlarge

The indicators remain Bullish with the exception of Money Flow, which has slowed down with the drop off in trading volume.  We should not be surprised to see volume next week to be low going into the (US) Thanksgiving holiday.

 I’d like to make a few more observations about the overall economy and inflation.  First off as we know, over 70% of the US economy is driven by consumer spending and consumer spending is up over 70% from the pandemic low just a few months ago.  This very sudden rise in demand has caught inventories and manufacturing by surprise; they were geared for a slow “recession like” recovery lasting 18-24 months.  Demand exceeded supply, hence inflation of prices.  Basic Econ 101.  Now add to that low consumer debt, cash infusion by the Covid relief packages and mortgage / debt re-fi at historically low interest rates . . . well much more liquidity in the market place.  As “bad” as things seem to be, unemployment is actually low (4.6%); again adding to available cash out there.  Lastly, there has been a 29% reduction in ships waiting in the ports of Los Angeles to unload.  That along with domestic manufacturing picking up means supply is increase to meet that increased demand.  It just doesn’t happen quickly.

Here’s a chart on consumer debt from the St. Louis FED –

A quick look at where the stocks are in the broad S&P 1500 Index.  The pie chart indicates where stock prices are in relation to their 20 day moving average and their standard deviation volatility (i.e. Bollinger Bands).   Overall, fairly evenly spread out (pretty typical).

Lastly the Short Term Sector Strength table is shown below –

Technology sectors continue to lead the way with Consumer Goods & Service not far behind.  I am +90% invested but always looking for a possible pull back.  Don’t know when, but it shouldn’t be much of one as long as earnings remain strong and spending over the Christmas period is good.  We’ll see.  For those that celebrate it, have a Happy Thanksgiving and Stay Safe.    …… Tom …..

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

Inflation ! … or … ? November 13, 2021

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , , ,
add a comment

Nov. 12, 2021 – I’m going to start off a little differently this week and talk about sector strength and how it typically relates to major market tops.

The big word this week was Inflation.  Is its sudden and significant rise a sign of bad news for this market and what are the warning signs?  First off I want to emphasize the description of “major” as it relates to market tops.  These are not short term 5% to 10% corrections, but ones that are due to longer term weakness in the overall economy, and typically last at least 6 months but can go on for years.

Let’s look at a few signs of a major top.  Usually we’ll see that high quality (i.e. government) bonds out perform stocks.  We’ll also see “safe haven” sectors like Utilities and Consumer Staples out perform as well.   Another sign is that the VIX index (based on the put / calls in the options market) takes a sudden and big move up and it will stay there.  I note that (so far) that’s not the situation in this market . . . .  could be later, but not now.  One other characteristic that happens early on is if major investors see trouble ahead “Value” stocks will out perform “Growth” stocks.

What do we have now?  Well Call option activity is very, very high (a sign of optimistic / speculation).  Treasury bonds remain high historically (i.e. low interest rates).  VIX gyrates but does not stay very high for very long, and growth is out performing value.  Take a look at the relative strength comparison chart below over the past 6 weeks.

click to enlarge

Chart courtesy of Stock Charts

Small Cap(ital) growth stocks are doing better than Large Cap value; large cap value stocks which would be a “safer bet” for investors.  OK, perhaps a sign of speculation, which could be worrisome, but so far not a sign of weakness.

Next let’s look at the usual Short Term Sector Strength table below.

And what do we see?  Technology sectors strong as well as Mid cap and Small cap indexes.  Yes, Gold is up there as well and if inflation is to continue to be a worry gold should continue to do even better.  Gold would also be a bell weather for a market top driven by inflation; we’ll keep an eye on that. Lastly we’ll look at how the stocks in the S&P 1500 Index (considered to be the most “investable”) are doing right now.

Not much to get concerned about here at the present time.  The last chart is of the NASDAQ Composite Index, the chart I usually lead off with.  We’ve had a brief drop over the past 3 days with inflation concerns but markets don’t go up in a straight line either.

click to enlarge

Third quarter earnings have been pretty to very good.  Some corporations have given weak guidance for the 4th quarter so IF we are to see a big correction we may have to wait until after the 1st of the year if earnings falter.  As always, things can change quickly but let’s also keep things in perspective and not get carried away with headlines.

Have a good week.    ………..  Tom  ……………

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

%d bloggers like this: