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Waiting for Superman ! November 2, 2012

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.

“Waiting for Superman” is the title of my monthly newsletter which will be posted under the “Newsletter” tab by Saturday.  I won’t repeat the content of the newsletter, that would be redundant at best and ridiculous at worst.  But suffice it to say, this market appears to be in fact waiting.  Likely for the results of Tuesdays election, but I feel that’s just an excuse.

Regardless of your political persuasion the office of President is usually minimized by that of Congress; both houses.  You can have all of the vision in the world, but if both houses of Congress can’t come close to agreeing, it really doesn’t matter.  So, hopefully Tuesday will be a “wake up call” for Congress.  We can only hope.

Here’s what I’m seeing right now:

Mid-September was a Buying Climax (BC), followed by an UpThrust After Distribution (UTAD), then a move down, followed by a slight rally into the Last Point of Supply (LPSY).  The volume profiles pretty much confirm this theory.  So what next?  Wyckoff Theory would say perhaps one more day rallying into a secondary LPSY, then a continuation of this down trend.  Are we pre-destined for this?  No.  With the election a few days away anything may happen, but this scenario does fill (what I feel) the pattern.  Don’t get me wrong, I’m NOT hoping for this to happen.

Right now I’m heavy in Cash, with a slight Bearish bias via 2x Short the NASDAQ “Q’s” (Tech is weak in here).  I am prepared to either sell off my bear ETF or add to them.  The main thing now is to stay flexible and not market biased in either direction because you could be wrong.

Note the levels of price support.  A break of (roughly) the 2950 area could bring in additional Selling.  For now the price and volume action are rather Neutral; Waiting for Superman.  I hope the market (and the public) are not disappointed.  In any case we should not have to wait very long to find out.  Stay nibble and carefull.

Have a good week.         ……….  Tom  ……….

chart courtesy of MetaStock, used with permission.

P.S.  Strong & Weak Sectors, Price Strength and Money Flow charts are in the Newsletter, take a look.

P.P.S.  Want to know when I make a new post?  Click on the RSS icon to be notified (works with Internet Explorer only for now).


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