Special Risk Capital Management LLC

Market On the Cusp June 15, 2013

Another short post as I’m on the road, and I hate working out of a small screen laptop (I’ve ordered a new; bigger screen and lighter too).  Here goes:

On the chart above, I note (what I believe to be) a critical level that was reached on Wednesday, 3395 on the NASDAQ Composite Index.  That low should hold on a closing basis for this market to stay neutral.  Earlier my market model had gone to Cash as the low-level “stop price” was hit and taken out).  IF the Index closes (or is likely to close) below 3395 I will take a small “short” position in the weakest index.  (“short” meaning that the instrument will go up as the index falls; an inverse ETF or fund)  Notice how the volume (supply) has dropped off recently.  Looking like a “lack of buying” more than “actual selling” is moving prices lower.  For that reason I think this looks like a mild correction / slump and not much more.  I don’t see folks heading for the exits just yet.

So . . . heavy in Cash for now and watching the 3395 level for clues.

What’s doing well right now?  Not much.  I’ve taken small position in inverse Latin America and Emerging Market funds, tho many of my individual stock positions are still open.  Once again the stronger stocks are holding up better than the general market.  That’s it for now.  Have a great week.

chart above courtesy of MetaStock / Equis International; used with permission