Special Risk Capital Management LLC

A Traders Market May 15, 2015

OK, this past week was generally a good week.  Thursday was super; but . . . while we’ve broken above my (very) short term trend line (in red) we’re still within that price trading range.  I am cautiously optimistic.  A number of my indicators have turned “Bullish” though mildly.  I’d like to see some old fashion enthusiasm (i.e. up bar volume) come back in and stay for more that a day or two.

Sectors continue to whipsaw back and forth.  Whether they be the energy complex, biotech or (electronic) tech, we see prices swing up suddenly then soften.  The international area is doing a little bit of this head fake too.  Europe is up, then down; Asia is strong, then weak; etc.

One of the big things continues to be the uncertainty about interest rates.  The FED would like to raise them but with so much liquidity being provided by other countries, and their rates at / near zero, can interest rates rise much without softening of the stock market?  It’s almost like “Damned if you do and Damned if you don’t”.  I think that the “Money Flow” indicator (top of the chart) shows it best; not much movement in either direction.  With the summer season arriving soon, we may be in for a long slow summer.

Healthcare, Semiconductors and Building Materials were the strong sectors last week.  We’ll just have to wait and see if that strength continues and spreads deeper into this market.  Have a good week.         ………..  Tom  ……….