Special Risk Capital Management LLC

Ground Hog Day . . . Again June 12, 2015

It’s good to be back in the office writing and researching via a fast computer, fast internet and a big screen monitor.  “Live” has improved.  🙂

Unfortunately this market has not improved.   It’s like the movie Ground Hog Day, where the same scene replays everyday, over and over again.  The markets are surely driven by news. Is the Greek debt deal done?  Is the FED raising interest rates in June?  What’s happening with ISIS?  It goes on and on.  If the market had not risen so much over the past 6 years it may be different, but there has been serious money made and no one wants to give much of it back.  Folks are nervous.  So here we are, stuck in this sideways pattern:

There could be at price structure of Distribution (I prefer to look at things in a worse case scenario). A Buying Climax followed by an Automatic Reaction (establishing the trading range), then a move higher on light volume / demand (Up thrust after Distribution). What is needed next is a solid “break through the ice” below 5020 (I’d prefer on increasing volume).  A break below 4905 would be the final confirmation.  But . . we’re NOT there yet; so we go with what we know, a trading range.

Groups or sectors that I feel merit further attention currently, are shown below.

(click on the graphic to enlarge it for easier viewing)  No surprises here, as these have been on my radar for weeks on end.

Just how strong is this market?  The pie chart below is of all of the stocks in the S&P 1500 Index (very broad), it shows the number in some stage of Accumulation (buying), Distribution (selling) or Neutral.

About 42% are in Accumulation, 33% in Distribution with the remainder in a Neutral status.  It appears that we’re fairly spread out, which confirms the whole trading range structure.

I continue to buy strength and sell weakness, trying to eek out a modest gain, but it’s not easy since few stocks are what I’d call in a nice steady up trend.  There we have it.  Time to be patient as this can’t go on forever.  After all, it is summer time and it’s not unusual for things to slow down.  Have a good week.      ………..  Tom  ………..

price chart by MetaStock; pie charts by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com.  Used with permission.