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More Movement & Some Weakness August 26, 2016

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
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Aug. 26, 2016 – Well at least we got some movement (though not much) this week.  I read that the last month the S&P 500 Index has been in the tightest range it has ever been for over two decades.  Those narrow bars that go horizontal tell the story.  (click to enlarge charts)

NASDAQ

It’s not time to bail out just yet, but there is a small amount of weakness beginning to creep into the market.  Maybe it’s just the trailing days of summer and a lack of participation in the market but “Volume Flow” and “Money Flow”have fallen off (chart above).  There is a support level near 5165 just below current prices so that may hold until Labor Day passes.  There just doesn’t seem to be any commitment to either buy or sell right now.  Looking for direction?  Sure looks like it.  With earnings season behind us the primary mover is likely to be a news event, the a FED announcement, etc.

Here are the sectors of stocks that I consider strong now:

Top Sectors

They’re pretty much the same as the last 3-4 weeks, and they appear to be trending nicely.

The overall market (as measured by the broad S&P 1500 Index) is fairly well balanced between the number of stocks in Accumulation (buying) and Distribution (selling) / Neutral.  So for the time being that’s healthy.

S&P 1500 A-D

This market just appears to be waiting for some catalyst to move it in either direction, and it probably won’t take much to move it, then everyone will pile on.  Right now I’m invested with some Cash, but just a little bit concerned.

Have a good week.       ………………  Tom  …………….

price chart by MetaStock; pie charts by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

Ditto August 19, 2016

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
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With the markets ending where they began this week, and the trading ranges (daily bars) being very tight, “Ditto” is about all I can say.  Not much has happened or changed over the week.

NASDAQ

The chart above shows a near horizontal trajectory, volume slightly below “average”, “volume flow” horizontal (circled in blue) and the Money Flow indicators are positive but flat.   Looks like summer vacation to me.  I note that my “market sentiment” indicator blipped below “bullish” for a day.

The McClellan Summation Index (below) is basically the sum of the momentum values of the number of advancing stocks vs. declining stocks.  The green bars show that the stock momentum is increasing and the red decreasing.  The momentum of advancing issues going down does not mean that the market must go down, but it does show that the stock market advance started slowing in early August.

McClellan

I feel this is a yellow caution flag.  One that bears watching, especially since it diverges from the market (S&P 500 Index shown in the back ground in gray).  With the number of stocks leading the market upward narrowing it could set the stage for a decline.  For now it is just a consolidation phase.

The pie chart below shows the sectors that stock I am watching are in.  No big changes here; select Tech sectors are doing well along with a resurgence of Metals & Mining.

Top Sectors

I also note continued strength in International sectors; China, Latin America and some European countries are showing some positive moves.  That’s it for now.  Have a good week.        …………  Tom  ………….

Charts by MetaStock & Worden Brothers / TC2000; pie chart by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com.  Used with permission.

The March Continues, Tho . . . August 13, 2016

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
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Aug. 12, 2016 – This market continues to march forward, though there are some minor signs of at least some slowing slowing.  The McClellan Summation Index (shown below), which is the cumulative sum of advancing vs. declining stocks, is trending down (circled in purple).  This indicates that fewer stocks are advancing and the market advance has narrowing participation.

Summation

Does this mean the market must fall?  No, and the McClellan Summation Index can drop for awhile before any price weakness begins, but this does show that structural weakness is beginning. (click on chart to enlarge)  I’ve drawn a few narrow trend line channels and spotted in a Bollinger Band to add to the analysis.  The gray line is the S&P 500 Index for reference.

The chart of the NASDAQ Composite (below) continues to weigh on me.  The daily bars (range) is tight, volume is low and Market Sentiment is now Neutral.  Just another “yellow flag” in here.

NASDAQ

It’s good to be back on my home computer with a big screen; makes graphic editing much easier.  So, here are a few more areas to cover:

First the percent of stocks in the broad S&P 1500 Index that are in an Accumulation (buying) phase; nearly half of them.

SP 1500 A-D

Next the price strength of all stocks in the S&P 1500 Index; roughly a third of them:

SP1500 Price Strength

This looks relatively “healthy” in that things are not majorly imbalanced (i.e. over bought or over sold).   A positive.

Next let’s see what areas (sectors) are doing well:

Major Sectors

We note that over the past 6 weeks, Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare are doing well.  When you drill down that is focused on Software, Semiconductors, Internet, select Retail and Biotech stocks.   I should also note that emerging markets and European stocks are recovering as well.  The chart below shows the sectors and amounts of stocks that are on my “radar” as being strong.

Top Sectors

So that’s it for now.  Hopefully I am covering areas of interest for you; it’s always good to get feedback though.  Fell free to comment (but I can’t give specific security recommendations).  Also add this blog to your RSS subscription to be notified when content changes (just click on the orange RSS icon).

Bottom line is (for now) I’m invested, but remain cautious.  Signs of weakness maybe slowly developing.  Likely any correction we get will be short and shallow, but we’re due for a breather here.  Have a good week.       ………. Tom ……..

charts by TC200.com; MetaStock; pie charts by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com.  Used with permission.

The Move Up Continues August 6, 2016

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
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Aug. 5, 2016 –  This will be very short because I can’t log into my home computer, but no worries since I’ll be back on Monday.  I’ll post more market information then.  In the mean time we see that the markets worldwide like a strong US economy and very low interest rates.

NASDAQ

With US job growth strong it’s just a mater of time until the FED has to increase interest rates.  With that (likely) even more international money will flow into the US markets, both equity & bond.

I remain cautious about this market though.  With the exception of the jobs report gap up, the daily range has been narrow and volume just “OK”.  This market can continue in this mode for a long time, but I feel a bad news item will cause a significant down draft.  Traders and investors are nervous, especially at previous market highs like we are at now.

That’s it for now, I’ll add more info on Monday.       ……..  Tom  ……..

Below you’ll find the “pie charts” for the Price Strength and Accumulation / Distribution of stocks in the S&P 1500 Index:

SP 1500 pRICE sTRENGTHSP1500 A-D

Next the sectors of stocks that appear to be strongest:

Top Sectors

As usual, click on the graphic to enlarge it for easy viewing.  Sorry this are a day late; but back to normal operations now.

 

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