jump to navigation

Noth’in New February 24, 2017

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , ,
add a comment

Feb. 24, 2017 – This is sounding like a broken record because most markets worldwide continue their upward pace.  I do note a slight change, in that some defensive sector are showing some strength.  Notably, Utilities, Tobacco, Aerospace-Defense and REITs.  (See the table below.)

nasdaq

The NASDAQ Index remains within it’s price channel (purple lines) and I’ve moved my “Wyckoff Support” level up to 5748; which is derived from the Low of a weekly significant bar.  Sentiment, Volume & Money Flow indicators remain “Bullish”.  Volume did drop off late this week, so we’ll be watching for signs of an Up Thrust on low volume . . . a warning sign.

Here’s my sector strength watch list:

sectors

The overall strength also shows itself in the broad S&P 1500 stocks:

% of stocks, Price Strength –

price-strength

% stocks in Accumulation & Distribution –

a-d

There’s a fair amount of green up there and expectations are high for tax cuts, government spending (infrastructure & defense) and lower regulation.  If the markets get concerned that they are not going to happen, that could mean trouble; but not yet.

Have a good week.      …………  Tom  …………

Chart by MetaStock; table and pie charts by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com; used with permission.

Ditto (not much has changed) February 18, 2017

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , ,
add a comment

Feb. 17, 2017This IS getting to be redundant, because really not much has changed over the past 3-4 weeks.  We remain in that upward sloping price channel (see chart below), with most indicators showing a positive reading.  True, the momentum of Advancing to Declining issues has slowed, but that don’t necessarily mean anything but a slowing in rapid market advance.

I believe that there are a bunch of positive things being anticipated by this market from tax cuts, to de-regulation to infrastructure appending to defense spending, but until something doesn’t pan out, we’ll be where we are.  Perhaps (just perhaps) the “Smart Money” is waiting for the last buyer to jump back in.  After that . . . .well, it could be a quick trip back down.  The only question is how far and when.  No one knows.  Let’s not get complacent here, as it is always calmest before the storm.  (so much for clichés)

nasdaq

I’ve spotted in a few support levels and added (my interpretation of) “Wyckoff Significant Bar” levels (red & green dashed lines).  As long as we hold within this channel and remain above support, we have to consider this rally to be intact.

I’ve been researching methods of measuring sector strength and that algorithm is still in development, but far enough along to be of potential value.  It basically measures / ranks price returns over 5, 10, 15 & 20 days, along with the number of stocks Advancing or Declining (A/D), as well as the A/D volume (activity) in those stocks within sectors.  The table is shown below as a “raw score” , % price change and relative A/D ranking (A-F).

sectors

This is a version of classical “Top Down Analysis”.  Market Direction, Sector Strength, then Stock Selection within those sectors.  (sorry, I can’t provide specific stock ideas . . . regulation, etc.)  These sectors have been strong for well over a month now; many since mid-November.  But, as always, we should be on the lookout for rotation OUT of these sectors as they mature.  The bottom line is it is likely better to look for strong stocks toward the top of the list as opposed to the bottom; more likely to put the odds in your favor.

Hope this helps.  Have a good week.   ……..  Tom  ……..

Chart by MetaStock; table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

 

Climbing the Upper Channel February 10, 2017

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , ,
add a comment

Feb. 10, 2017 – As the 60’s Rock-n-Roll saying goes: “And the hits just keep on coming !”, and so does this market rally.  Prices continue to hug that upper trend channel line (purple).  The latest rally was (supposedly) sparked by Trump commenting that he’d have a tax reform plan out in the next 2-3 weeks.  This market has high expectations for the new administration.  How it delivers remains to be seen, though past execution of plans leaves room for concern.

nasdaq

In any case “it is what it is” and the markets continue higher.  I’ve spotted in new support price levels to watch for.  The 5575 level is the last price pivot level and the 5522 is the low for the last weekly “significant bar”.  The significant bar idea is based off of Wyckoff’s idea that the low of a major weekly up bar is significant since it showed where significant buying had come into the market.  I may start plotting that level here in the future.

One area I’ve been working on is evaluating industry sectors based on the performance of the stocks in those sectors.  Sure price is important, but so are the number of stocks advancing and the volume of those, compared to the declines.  Strong & broad participation are very positive for continued strength.  The idea of market analysis, then sector / industry analysis, before stock analysis, is very Wyckoff based as well.  Today we call it “top down analysis”, but it goes way back to the 1920’s.

So here’s my latest ranking (it could evolve, nothing is 100% set) of major industries, using the behavior of all stocks in those sectors.

sectors

The colored bar is a percentile ranking and the raw score is next to it.  My goal is to (quickly) provide good information on where to look for opportunities.  That said, I continue to like Metals & Mining, China, Technology and Emerging Markets (especially Latin America).

Always looking for comments & feedback from readers.  Take Care and have a good week.   ………  Tom  ……..

Price chart by MetaStock; table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com; used with permission.

The Slow March (Up) Continues February 5, 2017

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
add a comment

Feb. 3, 2017 – This will (again) be a fairly short commentary because of the continued movement up the trend channel (purple lines).  (click on graph to enlarge)

nasdaq

For now, Market Sentiment, Money and Volume Flows all continue to be positive.  My key support level is 5512 on the NASDAQ Composite Index, which is the low of the weekly bar where a “buying commitment” was made.

price-strengthPrice Strength (above) for stocks in the S&P 1500 Index is fairly strong and positive.

a-dAs is the Accumulation / Distribution (buying / selling) of those stocks.

2017-02-05_8-12-16Sectors that appear to show the most strength are shown in the pie chart above.  These sectors have remained strong for many weeks now as accumulation of shares continues.  I still am watch the momentum of the Advance – Decline data, which  shows the move slowing and narrowing.  Signs of at least a pause in this rally; but timing is not certain.

I continue to “ride the wave” higher, but deep inside realize that a correction could come at any time now.  There is so much instability in this market environment.  Rather concerning to say the least.

Have a good week.       …………  Tom  ………..

Price chart by MetaStock; pie charts by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

 

t

%d bloggers like this: