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Market in Consolidation September 30, 2017

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Sept. 29, 2017 – Uber busy (again), so I’ll get to the point(s).  This market sure appears to be in a consolidation / re-accumulation phase.  Yes, I know I labeled the chart as Distribution, but I tend to always be on the lookout for a worse case scenario.  The BC (buying climax) was weak and the UTAD (up thrust after distribution) has yet to even form.  But . .  . went I see market trends begin to soften, I get extra cautious.

The chart above does show strength, or at least a continuation of the last up trend.   We may be beginning a break out to the horizontal channel that started in mid-July, but that’s just a “maybe” for now.  Money Flow, Volume Flow and Sentiment are good, so let’s be patient here.

The pie chart above shows the % of stocks that are considered “Strong” or “Weak” based on their 20 day moving average.  There’s a lot of green up there, which means that most stocks are at least participating in the current up trend, even though it may be a mild trend.

The table above shows us where the current short term strength is.  Ideally, this is where we should be holding our “long” positions.  I hope this quick analysis helps.  Hopefully I’ll have more time later, though that might be a few weeks from now.

Have a good week.        ………….  Tom  …………

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

Market at Top of Trading Range – Struggling September 23, 2017

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Sept. 22, 2017 –  Really not much is happening in the world markets.  The NASDAQ Composite Index (below) shows us that we remain in broad trading trade that started in mid-July.  Those blue channel lines are nearly horizontal.

I note that conditions are generally positive, so I remain invested, but I also see that Volume Flow and the volume bars at the lower part of the chart are dropping.  There just doesn’t seem to be as much interest in adding to positions right now.  Technology has slowed, Developing Markets (Latin America & China) have also slowed their advances.  I’m still on the watch for an Up Thrust higher on weak volume to flush out the last of the buyers, but this is more likely a Consolidation pattern.

Some of the previously weak sectors like Energy and Healthcare have shown some rotation back into them.  The question is whether this is a market sector rotation (coming out of one sector and going into another) or just a general slowing down of activity / consolidation.  If this low volume continues without Index prices dropping it would indicate Consolidation.  And the market waits.

Not much exciting to review.  Have a good week.     ………  Tom  ………

Rolling Higher but at Resistance September 16, 2017

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Sept. 15, 2107 – Once again, I’ll going to keep this brief due to being very busy after the hurricane Irma with clean up; part of the “deal” with living close to the coast.  (Don’t worry, not major damage, just cleaning sand and water off of a “floodable” area . . . but it’s still work.)

Looking at the chart above we see that the market has returned to previous highs and the “long term” trend channel remains up.  All of the indicators shown are positive but one must also note that we’re at (classical) “resistance” in the price structure.  The volume on Friday does not give us much of a clue due to it being options expiration (the 3rd Friday of every month).  In the grand scheme, we should be invested . . . but let’s also be watchful as well since we’re “at the top”.

We see the previous leaders in Biotech and Technology coming back into their roles, but it appears that the overall leadership is narrowing.  Looking at the stocks in the very broad S&P 1500 index we see a fairly positive outlook.

S&P 1500, % of stocks in Accumulation / Distribution:

S&P 1500, % of stocks in a strong / weak structure:

So these charts sure look positive, thus we should be invested.  Where?  I like Biotech, Latin America, China, Healthcare, some select Oil Service companies as well as select Basic Material stocks.  Pharmaceuticals and Semiconductors are coming on strong as well.

That’s it for this week.  have a good week !   ……. Tom  ……

P.S.  If there is an area that you’d like me to cover, drop me a comment in the area at the top of this post.

chart by MetaStock; pie charts by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com; used with permission.

Unsteady Markets September 10, 2017

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Sept. 8, 2017 – Due to the hurricane, I’ve had to evacuate, so this will be short.

We’re still in an up trend, both short term and long term channels are either up or prices are above the upper line.  6480 remains resistance and 6216 is support..  What concerns me is the potential for a “double top” / Up Thrust in the price structure.  Money Flow is positive but lacks conviction.  So, I remain invested but still cautious about this extended market.

Here’s what sections are doing:

I prefer Developing Markets, Healthcare and select Technology sectors too.

Have a good week.       ……………..  Tom  ……………….

Still In Up Trend, Tho Topping (?) September 3, 2017

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Sept. 1, 2017 – This is a “moving weekend” for me so the post will be short.

I’ve added a longer term trend line channel (purple); we remain in the channel having just “kissed” the lower level at 6216.  Volume Flow and Market Sentiment indicators have turned up and are bullish.  Now the NASDAQ Composite Index is approaching the previous high at 6460.  This level must now be considered a resistance point for any further movement higher.

I’ve relabeled the key Wyckoff points just as a precaution for a Distribution pattern.  This last push back to old price levels was on below average volume.  Caused by the holiday weekend & vacations or minimal buyers?  We won’t know until the coming week.  I note that September has been a traditionally weak month for the markets, but that’s all in the past.

I’ve added a few positions in Technology, BioTech & Metals and Mining sectors, and added back a small position in the NASDAQ 1000 Index.  If we penetrate resistance with average to above average volume I’ll add to these.   Here’s a quick look at Sector Strength:

Have a good week.   ………….  Tom  …………

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

 

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