jump to navigation

“Same Old” Up Trend November 26, 2017

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , ,
add a comment

11-24-17 – Really . . . not much new here, just the “same old up trend”.  I’ve added the ‘short term” trend channel to the chart below (blue lines). We quick note that the price action is above the long tern channel (purple dashed) and at the top of the short term channel.  Money & Volume Flow indicators are bullish and strong.

Volume dropped off during the past holiday week (in the US) so we’ll wait to see what next week brings as far as activity.  I’m still looking for an Up Thrust in price on low volume, but so far not seeing it.  Prices are extended to the up side and nearly everyone is bullish waiting for the famous “Santa Clause Rally” into year end.

The table below shows where the short term strength is right now.

There’s not much choice except to remain invested for now, but extended prices always concern me . . . .  that’s where the risk is.

Have a good week.          ………..  Tom  ………..

Chart by MetaStock; table by http://www.HighGrowthInvestor.com.  Used with permission.

Market Chugs Upward on Lower Volume November 18, 2017

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , ,
add a comment

11-17, 2017 – After a major move to a new house and the major unpacking that goes along with it, I’m slowly approaching “normal”.  I wanted to talk about market “breath” (a.k.a. the number of stocks actually participating in a trend), but that will have to wait.  In any case, the market just keeps going higher.  One thing I do note is that the volume of stocks going up vs. those going down has slacked off.  That indicates a pause more than likely.  Also to note is that we’re heading into the holiday season where volume in general typically falls off.  No alarms, but something to watch.

I’ve moved the support levels up this week (based on the low of a strong weekly bar).  The logic is that a strong weekly “up bar” low price is where the buying started and hence a “commitment to buying” / Accumulation, thus strength & support.  On the NASDAQ Composite Index the first level is now 6668, then 6518.  If these levels get broken on a close, I get very concerned.  Last point; Friday was options expiration and that brought low volume (a little unusual).

Let’s look at the stocks in the broad S&P 1500 Index as a clue to overall market health.

% of Stocks Showing Strength:

% of Stocks in Accumulation or Distribution:

Nothing to get concerned about right now as there isn’t an over bearing amount in one category or another.  Though I should note that these are “slow” indicators and thus are more useful for significant moves and not minor corrections.

I am seeing some weakness in previous market sector leaders such as Semiconductors & Technology and some strength in more defensive sectors as Real Estate and Utilities.  Nothing major as it could be more of a pause, but since I am in these areas I’m paying close attention to them.

That’s it for now, have a good week.   ……..  Tom  ……….

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.


Continuation Up November 12, 2017

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , ,
add a comment

Nov. 10, 2017 – A busy weekend and weekend for me so I’ll get right to it.  Yes, the trend higher continues.  A quick look at the chart below shows Market Sentiment neutral and the remaining indicators Bullish.  Prices remain at the top of the price channel . . rather “nose bleed” levels, with support at the 6517 level on the NASDAQ Composite Index.

Tax “reform” may be driving this market higher and that may or may not come to pass without “issues”.  Semiconductors, Technology, Japan are leading sectors.  I note that Real Estate and Utilities (defensive plays) have quietly moved up in strength.  The breath of this market does seem to be narrowing with less and less number of stocks driving higher.  That is something to watch as overall volume is dropping.

For now, we can’t “fight the tape”; higher is higher.  Have a good week.           ………….  Tom  ………..

Trend Up Continues November 5, 2017

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , , ,
add a comment

Nov. 3, 2017 – The trend higher continues, though looking at the “Money Flow” indicator (top pane), the flow of capital into this market is slowing.  The big leaders are technology, with semiconductors in the fore front of the pack.

The support level for the NASDAQ Composite Index is 6517, the last swing low point.  Whether the idea of a big tax cut for corporations is driving this market or not is somewhat moot.  It just continues to go higher.  I remain concerned about prices hugging the upper trend channel line (blue dashed lines), but we “can’t fight the tape” right now.

Looking at the stocks in the broad S&P 1500 Index below we see a fairly balanced situation for the market as a whole.

Price Strength –

Stocks in Accumulation or Distribution –

Sectors I like are: Japan, Semiconductors, Technology, (short) Latin America, Banks, Basic Materials.

That’s it for this week.  Watch the news carefully in case the Trump Tax plan falls apart; that could be a game changer.   ……..  Tom  ….

%d bloggers like this: