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A Cautious Bounce December 8, 2017

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
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Dec. 12, 2017 – This week we saw the market revert back to the lower short term price channel (purple line) but remain well within the long term channel (dashed gray line).  OK, a bit of a pull back, and that’s to be expected after a very steady run higher.  But I do note a drop off in Money Flow and Volume Flow indicators.

Two possibilities: 1) volume dropping due to a lack of buyers, and also sellers, or 2) lack of demand to buy.  We’ll have to wait until next week to see if prices recover and exactly what volume does.  I’ve VERY cautiously labeled the peak as a Buying Climax and the swing lower an Automatic Reaction.  Are they really?  We’ll have to wait a few days to see IF there is the follow through necessary to confirm a Distribution price structure.  My feeling is likely not a significant top in the market just yet, but I’m always looking for a trend change.

The 6668 price level (blue line) would also help confirm any weakness, so I’ll watch that as well.  Until then, I remain invested and monitoring sector rotation.  Right now Financials, Telecom, Industrials, Banks and Consumer Goods & Services are strong.  Sure, some of this is seasonal, but “money goes where it’s treated best.”  Real Estate, Gold and Semiconductors are now some of the weakest sectors.  (That happened quickly!)

So the market is strong right now and the pie charts show the percent of stocks in the broad S&P 1500 Index confirm that.

Price Strength:

Accumulation (buying) / Distribution (selling):That’s about it for now.  Time to watch the reaction / bounce strength and be just a shade on the cautious side.  Have a good week.    ….. Tom ….

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

Maintaining the Up Channel December 3, 2017

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
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Dec. 1, 2017 – The (US) markets continued to stay in the “Short Term Channel” (purple lines) which is pointed up.  On Friday prices briefly touched to bottom channel line on the Flynn guilty news, but responded to the tax bill passage news.  

The year end period is typically bullish, but we do see signs that negative news will trigger selling.  Now that the tax cuts are passed and the “big rollers” can look forward to lower taxes next year, it will be interesting to see the reaction in January, 2018.  For now I’m watching the 6668 level on the NASDAQ Composite Index as a first line of price support (blue line).

Not much to say except it looks like money is flowing out of Tech (especially Semiconductors) and into Banks and Finance.  Emerging Markets are erratic and Europe “ho-hum”.  My sector strength table is below (short term strength).

That’s about it.  Have a good week.        …………  Tom  …………

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

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