Special Risk Capital Management LLC

Volitility Returns; at Important Level March 30, 2018

March 29, 2018 – A short week this week but at seen below, price volatility is back and we’re at / close to my “spring level”.  This “spring level” (6880) is important because that’s the nearest price where buyers “came into the market” on a weekly basis.  It’s the low price of a Wyckoff “significant bar”.  IF this is an Accumulation structure, this price level would be logical for the price to bounce off of and head higher.

That remains to be seen as next week is a holiday week and volumes are expected to be light.  If this level does not hold, then we could very likely be headed lower and the whole price structure scenario would have to change.  The big wild card is the news.  And with that, anything could happen to spook investors.  It would take much in this weak market environment.  The damage was done, now the market has to prove itself.  Earnings season is just around the corner.

Many major sectors remain “bearish”, but I’m playing it safe with only a small position short Latin America and short Japan.  It won’t take much on Monday to close these positions out; any hint of strength would do it.

Happy Easter & Happy Passover to all.  Have a good week.     ……….  Tom  ……….

Chart courtesy of MetaStock; used with permission.