Special Risk Capital Management LLC

Trend Lower, but at Support November 24, 2018

11/23/2018 – This will be short to match the abbreviated trading on the U.S. exchanges and the very low volume due to the Thanksgiving holiday.  Well the trend continues to be down but we’re right at an important support level of 6880 (red line) on the NASDAQ Composite Index (see below).  To move higher I’ll have to see a close above 7225 (green line) and some measured buying volume returning.

Trade tariff concerns, BREXIT and general international economic concerns are just making buying common stocks a difficult decision.  Oil has dropped dramatically over the past month and there just is a negative “funk” in the world markets; no one is in a hurry to do anything it seems.  I sure would like to see a Selling Climax to wash out the weak hands.  There really aren’t any “strong” sectors presently, so I’ll forgo that for the time being.

I thought it would be nice to take a look at how the big trend following hedge funds are doing as we close out the year.  This data is from the website http://www.automated-trading-system.com/trend-following-wizards-october-2018/ , it’s free and you too can subscribe to it; it comes out monthly.

You can see that there are some very big funds with assets under management (AUM) in the billions of $.  But . . . look at how they are doing !  So don’t feel to bad about your own performance as these pros typically get 2% fixed of assets + 10% of your gains.  It doesn’t look like a good year for any of them.

That’s it for now.  Next week should set the environment for the rest of 2018 as many traders return.  I’m heavy in Cash right now and that looks OK to me.

Have a good week.        …………….  Tom  ……………

chart courtesy of MetaStock; used with permission