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No Demand June 15, 2019

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , , ,

June 14, 2019 – For those that are new to my blog, I update over the weekend (Saturday or Sunday).  I try not to miss a week, but if I’m on the road, postings will be a little briefer than “normal”.

OK, last week was interesting, especially the last 3 days.  Looking at the chart below I note very narrow bars that are in an unusually tight grouping.  This indicates that buyers equaled sellers; i.e. little net price movement.  That coupled with lower volume would indicate “No Demand”, at least in the short term.

It just looks like everyone is waiting for a sign to either go back to buying or to go back to selling.  Since so much of trading now is affected by computer algorithms it is interesting to see what the volume actually is when there is not a clear cut trend (up or down) or a “reversion to the mean” (over bought or over sold) condition.

Market Sentiment has improved as well as Volume Flow, but Money Flow remains negative and Price Strength neutral.  My more advanced market model is giving similar signals; lightly net positive but far from being fully committed to the Long side.  A close above 7965 would be a positive and a close below 7292 would be negative.  It just seems like there is to much uncertainty out there + it’s summer time to boot.

Looking at a longer term view of the pie charts of the percent of stocks in the “investable” S&P 1500 Index . . . . . .

% of stocks in Accumulation / Distribution :
% of stocks with Strong / Weak prices (past 20 days):

The A/D is about evenly balanced; a normally healthy sign.  The strong/weak is biased toward Strong to Neutral.  No major warning sign yet.  The sector analysis table shows a little different picture (IMHO).

I note the rise in more defensive sectors of Utilities, Real Estate and Healthcare.  Something to monitor as concerns about growth both in the US and worldwide seem to have investors on edge.  Broadcom (internet & cell phone parts supplier) estimated down their earnings due to the China tariff war and semiconductor companies are doing the same.  If Technology earnings fall flat in the second quarter (reporting in July) that would be a significant blow to the entire US market.

I am modestly long, but will take some “off the table” early next week if markets continue to weaken or cannot show a clear sign.   Have a good week.  ……..  Tom  ……..

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.


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