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Hopeful, but Not Great October 12, 2019

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
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Oct. 10, 2019 – This will be short since I’m “on the road”.  The gap up on Friday was “hopeful”, but the close was very weak (Not Great), hence the price action did not confirm that a new up trend had begun.  For this reason I think it’s wise to go slow until the structure of this market improves.  No need to be a hero in here.

It sure would be nice to see a solid close above the 8062 level on the NASDAQ Composite Index.  Volume is picking up but the “Money Flow” indicator shows that a lot of selling was done and so far has not been over come with buying.  Once again “news” has driven the market and if things don’t “pan out” with trade negotiations, the market could revert back lower.  Until we see some earnings coming across the wire from the end of the 3rd quarter, we will likely not be on solid footing.  I am not convinced that the all clear sign has been given just yet.

The sector table is below.  I note that Technology is the most optimistic of the sectors.  Not surprising since that area got hit hard during the last down swing.

I am slowly taking small position in here; the light hedge has been removed.  Have a good and cautious week.   ………….  Tom  ……………….

Not Much Buying Demand October 5, 2019

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
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Oct. 4, 2019 –  A pretty dismal week with a blip up on Friday.  The problem is the volume on Friday was very low, i.e. “No Demand”.  Looks like a simple short covering rally to me.  We are very close to the last swing low and the moment of truth is near.  Does this level hold (7663 support) or do we break down even lower.  It’s mixed and could be resolved via a news item.  But the US economy is slowing and with it corporate earnings.  The market is looking for stability and a good reason to rally back to the previous high.  With BREXIT and Impeachment looming in the background that doesn’t look all that great.  In addition, “price action” remains weak & “in the noise” without a clear direction.  (see last week for a description or in the “publications” page)

The market likes the idea of lower interest rates, but that usually means things are not that good and the economy needs help.  A double edged sword so to speak.

When you see government bonds, Utilities and Real Estate as strong sectors you know that (in the short term) things are not that great.  Here’s the table below:

Not much more to say.  I’m heavy in Cash with a light hedge on as insurance.  Have a good week.     ………… Tom …………

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

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