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Direction Still Up: Clouds Forming? November 16, 2019

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
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Nov. 15, 2019 – Make no mistake, the direction of the US markets remain “Up”, but . . . . storm clouds may be forming.  Two signs of that are the percent of “Smart & Dumb money” (from SentimentTrader. Com) and my own sentiment composite (top pane, chart below).  The difference between “Smart & Dumb Money” is fairly high indicator of where market tops happen.  That does not mean “all Hell is breaking loose”, but it does raise the caution flag.  The “big guys” are cautious.

Note just how far & fast this market has come in the 6 weeks.  Due for a change or at least a pause?  I’m certainly thinking that is a strong possibility.  It’s just natural.  I also note that price action “Price Strength” is back to Neutral.  Time to Sell?  No, but not a great time to buy either.  Let’s continue to monitor the reaction of the market to any news, whether it be earnings, geo-political or the like.  That will be a clue.  Trade news is going to be a key item here.  Right now we’re being whip-sawed back and forth on that front.  There is a big incentive to inflate these market over the next year (i.e. election); watch the big picture carefully.  (click on chart to enlarge)

Short term, here’s where the sector action is:

That’s about it for now.  I’m in there with significant positions, but getting more uncomfortable as this market pushes higher.  Watch volume spikes on big move days.  Also be aware of “Lack of Demand” (low volume), especially over multiple days.

Have a good week.    ………… Tom  ………..

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

Continuation Higher November 8, 2019

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
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Nov. 8, 2019 – What’s there not to like?  The market gapped up higher on Monday and pretty much stayed in a narrow range most of this week.  Ignoring the impeachment and on again – off again China trade news.  So for now, I’ve just got to stay in this market even though I’m not entirely comfortable with it.

The chart above shows all positive indicators; not much else to say.  (click on chart to enlarge it)  Let’s take a look at the stocks in the very broad S&P 1500 Index below.

Price Strength –

Over 50% above their 20 day moving average, so strong price movement for most stocks in the index.

Accumulation (buying) & Distribution (selling) –

(Again) over 50% of the stocks indicating Accumulation of shares.  Maybe a little over done, so a pause is not out of the question here.

Sector Strength –

The Technology sectors continue to lead this market higher in the near term.

So the bottom line is this market continues higher until something forces investors to get nervous and sell.  We’ve come up a fair amount and survived (most) of the 3rd qtr. earnings.  The seasonality is generally good for the rest of the year, so got to go with the flow.  When changes comes, I’ve got a feeling it will come very quickly.  Hopefully the stair step higher will continue in the mean time.

Have a good week.      …….. Tom  ……..

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

New High . . What’s The Problem ? November 2, 2019

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
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Nov. 1, 2019 – OK, the markets are at / near all time highs so what is there to worry about?  Maybe nothing, but then again maybe there is at least some concern.  I’m changing the perspective and the time frame of the regular chart of the NASDAQ Composite Index (below).  The daily bars show us one thing but weekly bars can provide us with a different perspective.

I’m taking a liberal view of what a “top” is on this chart so bare with me.  The chart goes back about 17 months and the area over a year ago (mid Sept., 2018) is labeled “1”.  Thereafter we see labels at the swing highs / peaks of 2, 3 and 4.  Each time the market gets near the current level it has pulled back, and sometimes very quickly and significantly.  Presently many of the indicators are positive, thus indicating strength and continued prices moving higher.

Now I’m not saying that the market has to correct and head lower, it’s just that we’re once again at / near an inflection point.  I am currently “long” this market because in the short term it is headed higher as far as we know.  From a historical perspective one could have gone to Cash over a year ago and not missed much, and actually come out ahead.  The question to ask is what makes this top, top #4, different?  Or perhaps we’re in a very broad trading range and need to be quick on our feet to make any type of head way.

In any case we will have a much better idea within a few weeks.  Either the markets will continue to trend high after this current breakout, or it will confirm a “shake out” of the last buyers “holding the bag”.  I’ve read where the big institutions are very reluctant to buy into this market at these levels. The point being that we are closer to the top, than we are to the bottom.  It’s been a while since the trend bottom; an unusually long period.  I feel it’s a good time to be nimble and extra careful because the next minor correction could be more than that.  Let’s watch the bar action and confirm them with volume.  Signs of a rush to the exits are wide range down bars on high volume.

In the mean time here’s a table of short term sector strength –

Have a good week.      ………  Tom  ………..

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