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Move Upward Continues December 28, 2019

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
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Dec. 27, 2019 – With a major holiday now complete and behind us, it will soon be time to get back to “business” in the world stock markets.  New Years is just around the corner and I still have this uneasy feeling that a new tax year may bring on a correction.  Long term, not much has or is likely to change; the FED with easy money and an election year (in the US) to boot.  The fact that the economy (in the US) has moved quite a lot in a short period of time may mean that next years opportunities will be more international as they play “catch up”.

As the chart above shows, it was a quite week.  Major indexes up about 1/2% and the “Q’s” up a little over 1% for the shortened week.  (click on chart to enlarge it)  I did move the near term support level up to 8934 on the NASDAQ Composite Index.  (That’s the low of the weekly bar where buying came into the market).  A break below that level and I’ll begin to hedge &/or go to Cash.

The stocks in the broad S&P 1500 Index  show similar strength.  There’s a fair amount of green & not much red in these pie charts; possible over extended markets.

% Price Strength –% in Accumulation / Distribution –

Sector Strength table:

That’s it for now.  Wishing all a Very Happy New Year & Good Trading in 2020 !          ……..  Tom  …….

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

A Continuation of Trend December 21, 2019

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Dec. 20, 2019 – OK then, not much new to say as this market keeps climbing.  Near term support level is 8790 and further down is 8600.  A drop after New Years to at least the 8600 level would not surprise me so that intuitions can show a glowing statement at the end of 2019.  This rate of climb is hard to sustain, so a drop then a pause would be “normal”.

The only lethargic indicator is “Money Flow” (red line), but everything else is Bullish.  (click on chart to enlarge it)   Trading, and of course volume, will be slowing down this week and the market will be rather shallow.  That is if a big trade hits it will drive prices more significantly that is typical.

The sector strength table is below, not much different there either.

Enjoy the holidays and your family, the markets are slow and can wait.  🙂   ………….  Tom  ………….

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

Continuation with Caution December 14, 2019

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Dec. 13, 2019 – This sounds (and is) a broken record.  One that just keeps on playing the same “groove” / track.  Case in point is the trend channel on the chart below (purple lines).  Note the rate of the incline before last week (price to the upper line) and that of price to this week (lower line).  Prices appear to be following (progressing) at the same rates.  OK, that’s all well and good plus we’re at the “all time high” scenario.  But . . . . note just how far higher prices would have to go to catch up to the upper trend line.  My support level is at 8600 for the NASDAQ Composite Index.

Damage was done a couple of weeks ago (about 10 bars back).  I’m on the lookout for a minimum of a “change of the rate” of increase or a deeper pattern change.  (click on chart to enlarge)

The China trade news could and likely will throw a monkey wrench into the entire market structure; either higher or lower.  But the Trump Tweets are getting just a little old.  (huge deal coming, big news, etc., and then nothing)  In the mean time I have to go with what I see.  Price trend up, most indicators are positive.  The notable exception is “Money Flow” which turned lower (red line above).

Sector Strength (in the short term) remains about the same.  Select Technology issues and Bank / Financials.  Watch for reports on Christmas retail sales.  They will be quite the bell weather for the economy.  I note that November sales were a disappointment.

That’s it for now.  Have a good week and be careful with the news whip lashing these markets . . . . .  the risk increase at the “all time high”.   …………  Tom  ………….

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

Upward Continues December 7, 2019

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Dec. 6, 2019 – And so the upward move continues.  A test of the lower trend line (via negative China trade news), then back up.  This shows that the markets are factoring in some type of “trade deal”; maybe not the whole thing, but something.  Interesting that small cap and mid cap stocks came alive over the past week; generally a positive sign.  Now with earnings season well behind us the focus will be on trade and retail sales for the holiday season.  If either disappoints . . . . well we now have a taste of the result.  It will be sharp & swift.

In the mean time one must follow the trend and it continues to be upward.  Call me skeptical, but I remain an uneasy long investor in here.  Part of my logic is that we’re closer to the top (likely) than we are to the bottom.  The regular chart is back and the software upgrade issue has been resolved.  🙂   (click on chart to enlarge)

I’ve moved the Resistance (at 8705) and Support (8542) levels tighter to try and be responsive to any negative news.  IF these levels are violated on the Close that would confirm a possible trend change or correction.  Until then, the other indicators are positive and we go with the current trend.  Let’s look at the percentage of stocks in the broad S&P 1500 index and see where they stand.

Price Strength – In Accumulation / Distribution –Current short term Sector Strength:

That’s it for now.  Have a good week.   …….  Tom  ……..

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

Upward Trend Continues December 1, 2019

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Nov. 29, 2019 – This was a very short trading week in the US, though there was plenty of news internationally.  Most notable were the continuing back & forth comments regarding China trade.  Things don’t appear to be going very smoothly.  The big question is whether the new tariffs will go into effect on Dec. 15.  The count down continues, though I would not count out a “strategic delay” to give everyone more time.  IF the tariffs go into effect this market will react poorly (IMHO).

The chart below shows the price action.  (My software is acting up; a new version, so a few indicators were not immediately available.)

So far, so good.  I do remain cautious as market breath is starting to narrow; meaning less stocks are participating in this rally higher.  (click on the chart to enlarge it)

With this market breather I thought it would be interesting to compare the performance of the major market Indexes year to date.  The chart below begins at the Dec. 31, 2018 close and continues to last Friday.  You see how each index benchmarks off of the other; Bonds included.

That’s about it for now.  Sector strength remains the same from last week.  Have a good week.  ………..  Tom  ………..

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

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