Special Risk Capital Management LLC

Continuation with Caution December 14, 2019

Dec. 13, 2019 – This sounds (and is) a broken record.  One that just keeps on playing the same “groove” / track.  Case in point is the trend channel on the chart below (purple lines).  Note the rate of the incline before last week (price to the upper line) and that of price to this week (lower line).  Prices appear to be following (progressing) at the same rates.  OK, that’s all well and good plus we’re at the “all time high” scenario.  But . . . . note just how far higher prices would have to go to catch up to the upper trend line.  My support level is at 8600 for the NASDAQ Composite Index.

Damage was done a couple of weeks ago (about 10 bars back).  I’m on the lookout for a minimum of a “change of the rate” of increase or a deeper pattern change.  (click on chart to enlarge)

The China trade news could and likely will throw a monkey wrench into the entire market structure; either higher or lower.  But the Trump Tweets are getting just a little old.  (huge deal coming, big news, etc., and then nothing)  In the mean time I have to go with what I see.  Price trend up, most indicators are positive.  The notable exception is “Money Flow” which turned lower (red line above).

Sector Strength (in the short term) remains about the same.  Select Technology issues and Bank / Financials.  Watch for reports on Christmas retail sales.  They will be quite the bell weather for the economy.  I note that November sales were a disappointment.

That’s it for now.  Have a good week and be careful with the news whip lashing these markets . . . . .  the risk increase at the “all time high”.   …………  Tom  ………….

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.