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Trend Continues . . . . Slowing December 19, 2020

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
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Dec. 18, 2020 – Well the trend up continues though there are signs of slowing. Concerns about the economy include consumer spending and rising unemployment. Retail sales numbers after Christmas should be a telling indicator. In any case the pressure is on Congress to “do something” and Trump has basically given up on the presidency (i.e. no involvement or interest).

click to enlarge

The 12217 level would be a mild pull back after Christmas as there would (likely) be some tax selling before the end of the year (concerns that taxes will increase next year). It’s pretty basic: until the virus is under control the economy will not recover, but it looks like help is on the way. The Friday “blip” in volume was options & futures contracts expiring & thus rebalancing stocks. This and next week activity should be low as we head into the holiday season so volume will be light and trading liquidity light as well. Prices can move more quickly in this environment and so volatility will likely increase.

Looking at sectors. Here’s the very short term strength over the past 5 days in pie chart form:

And the same sectors in a lightly long term table form:

I note that consumer goods and the software element of technology are doing well. Interesting in this environment so we’ll see just how long these sectors can continue to show gains.

Nothing else very exciting so enjoy the holidays as best you can. Take Care. …… Tom …..

Chart by MetaStock, table by High Growth Stock Investor; used with permission.


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