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A “Wait & See” Market March 20, 2021

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
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March 19, 2021 – One could say that this market (depending on which index you benchmark) hasn’t done much over the past week and a half. Heck, you could go back even farther to mid to late February and say the same thing. That’s something that takes some getting used to but it’s not unusual. This past week trading volume was fairly low; that is below average. It just seemed like there is a “wait & see” perspective right now. Concerns about interest rates rising continue and add volatility to the day to day moves, but it’s more of a back and forth movement with a net result of not much overall movement.

click to enlarge chart

The chart above shows Sentiment, Money Flow and Volume Flow to be “Bearish” but just mildly so. Price Strength moderately Bullish. Resistance to any upward movement is around 1360 (green line) and support at 12985 (red line) in the near term. The price channel points downward.

So the end of the first quarter is close by and maybe investors just want to “run out the clock” and wait for something to inspire them one way or the other. We’ve come quite far very quickly since November and a pause is appropriate. The question is this “Re-Accumulation” or something more concerning? Since the bar color remain red I tend to be more cautious, though my major market model is still positive.

Short Term Sector Strength:

The only areas that did well last week were shorting Treasury Bonds (rates higher) and Japan. The “go-go” tech sectors were well off the high end on the strength table. And so, we join the “wait & see” crowd. Waiting for some sector to breakout and either break new ground or resume a previous move higher. And no one knows how soon that will happen or what will occur in the mean time. Right now I’m “lightly Bullish” but Cautious. Nuff said.

Have a good week and Stay Safe. …………. Tom ………….

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

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