Special Risk Capital Management LLC

Mixed Signals = Volatility September 12, 2021

‘Sept 10, 2021 – I’m seeing some mixed signals so I’m thinking ‘volatility ahead’. Up until Friday, we had strong price action and improving market breath. All good signs. But we can get too much of a good thing too. Actually the market breath improved so much that one could call it a ‘thrust upward’. Those typically occur at market tops and not in a well developed bull market. Nothing “magical” about a thrust and I think it is more an indication of a “FOMO” (Fear Of Missing Out). Nobody wants to be left behind especially as the 3rd quarter end is only a few weeks away.

I note Sentiment remains positive, Money Flow negative, Volume Flow slightly positive and Price Strength neutral. Since we hit all time highs this week there are not resistance levels as such; the support level is 14896 on the NASDAQ Composite Index. Friday was weak and volume increased. We’ll need to wait on Monday / Tuesday to see if that weakness (i.e. volatility) follows through. One of my “early warning” signals fired on Friday, so that’s got my attention . . . a “yellow flag”. But we’re still within the up sloping channel, so let’s not over react and get whip sawed here.

Technology sectors have eased off a bit and Bonds have shown some strength. China and Japan are kicking up their heels too. The Short Term Sector table is shown below:

That’s about it for now. Markets rarely go in a straight line so an orderly ease back would be “normal”.. Have a good week. …. Tom ….

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.