Special Risk Capital Management LLC

Expecting a Volatile Fall October 23, 2021

Oct. 22, 2021 –  I’m expecting a slight pause / pullback before the broad market pushes higher.  Friday may (just may) have been the start.  Note the volume blip on Friday.  The earnings of NetFlix, Tesla, Snap pushed prices down.  Many of the internet companies that rely on ad revenue are seeing a challenge since advertisers don’t see a pressing need to generate demand when supply is presently constrained.  Inflation concerns continue as the supply / demand economic factor once again comes into play.  Not surprising.

The 15085 level was our first resistance, then 15380 above that.  Steady price action around 15085 would be bullish and a launching pad for a break higher.  14182 is the support level.

Interesting that more than 80% of the stocks in the S&P 500 Index are above their 10 day moving average.  Both the Dow and S&P 500 reached all-time highs with the NASDAQ Composite and “Q’s” a bit behind.  Margin debt is below its previous high, and that’s good, as buyers appear to be stepping back into the markets.  This remains a volatile environment with the inflation concerns (the Producer Price Index jumped up), earnings continue to roll in and of course the economic / political news continues.

The Short Term Sector Strength table is below –

I note the sudden jump of China and the continued lethargic action of Technology sectors.  Financials are doing well.  We just need a little more leadership out of Tech.

Overall I’m fairly positive about the prospects in the long run, but expect some setbacks over the next 2-3 months.  Take Care and have a good week.   ……….  Tom  ………..