Special Risk Capital Management LLC

At The Point December 5, 2021

Dec. 3, 2021 –  At the close Friday we’re at / near an import support level, both from a previous price level and a few other technical prices levels (50 ma, Fibonacci, etc.).  The next couple of days are where we will find out whether the market stops and at least stabilizes or continues to show weakness.

The most obvious issue is the COVID Omicron strain and the Russian activity on the boarder of Ukraine. “A weak market will react badly to bad news while a strong market will ignore it.”  This market is overvalued and needs a breather even though we’re in a strong seasonal period.  If we can’t hold near this level the next line in the sand for support is the early October lows of 14182.  The VIX remains high indicating more Put buying than Call buying so traders are in full bore hedge mode buying protection.  The other concern is the FED.  Will they cut back (i.e. taper) the purchase of bonds and how much?  This market is addicted to cheap money, no doubt about it.

The pie chart of where the 1500 stocks in the S&P 1500 Index is shown above.  This relates to each stocks price position to its own Bollinger Band (20 day volatility bands).   Not surprising the amount of red, but weakness can also indicate future opportunity.

The short term sector strength table above shows strength in defensive sectors like Utilities, Materials, Financials and Consumer Staples.  Surprisingly Technology, especially Semiconductors, are holding up well.  Be on the lookout for retail sales and a few bell weather earnings reports coming out this week.  This news could influence the market direction in a significant way.

Have a good week & Happy Holidays.     ……….  Tom  ………..

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.