Special Risk Capital Management LLC

Green Shoots December 24, 2021

Dec. 23, 2021 – At the close for the week (Thursday) we saw the possible beginnings of “Green Shoots” from our indicators.  Now I take this with more than a “grain of salt” due to the low volume with many traders on vacation this week and next.  Thus I wonder just how much of a commitment there is.  I tend to be skeptical until after the New Year.  This was a short week and my comments will be short as well.

As mentioned I started to plot my new indicator of Market Strength lightly in black on top of Price Strength on the chart.  I’ll go over it in more detail after the first of the year but you’ll kind of get a handle on it even now.

Keeping the past year in perspective, I show the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) in the chart below.

Over all it was a great year, but just take a look at the 6 “scares” that closed below the 50 day simple moving average.  It was good to “buy the dips and sell the rips” but there will come a time when that will be disastrous.   Thus we need to look at the overall market and not just price actions.  Thus my work on a master multiple indicator to help gauge the market.  BTW, nothing is totally fool prove and works all of the time, but at the hard right edge of the chart it sure helps to have something to use to confirm a position change.  More explanations to come.

In the meantime, enjoy the holidays and get ready for 2022.  I’m thinking that next year will be more challenging than last and it’s a good idea to get prepared.  Take Care.    ….  Tom  ….