Special Risk Capital Management LLC

Waiting for News, Either Good or Bad April 17, 2022

April 14, 2022 – This was a shortened holiday week due to Good Friday and activity (volume) was light, but has been falling off for a few weeks anyway.  Likely cause is four big weeks coming up on first quarter earnings plus concerns about the push of Russia restarting in Ukraine.  The environment is unstable, hence low volume and little commitment by traders.  The earnings forecasts by corporate America will have a big influence on where the market goes from here . . .  and it could go either way.  We’re kind of at a point where a little news could have a big effect.

Note in the chart above of the NASDAQ Composite Index is in a bearish condition.  Not exactly a good time to deploy any funds into the market.  I’m holding off until there are some better signs of “good health”.  Interestingly, “seasonality” is positive for the next couple of months, but I doubt if that will have an over powering effect on this market.  News & earnings “trump” seasonality IMHO.

The Short Term Sector table below shows what’s doing best right now.  No surprise that defensive sectors are at the top.  I do have positions in those sectors, but also in Cash.

And so we wait for earnings and Putin over the next 3-4 weeks.  It may be a “nail biter”; we could use some good news for a change.  Have a good week.   …………  Tom  …………..

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.