Special Risk Capital Management LLC

Showing Life, but Not Commitment June 4, 2022

June 3, 2022 – Interesting week, this past week.  In the media I’ve heard: “The bottom is in, time to back up the truck” and then, “An economic hurricane is coming, get prepared.”  Well . . . OK, looks like we’ve got two extreme predictions and the winner is: “Nobody really knows for sure.”  The saying “Even a broken clock is right twice a day” comes to mind.  Let’s look at the chart.

What do I see?  I see a market that has many indicators positive and Bullish . . . but two things:  1. Look at the volume last week.  Very low.  You may say it was a holiday week, but in reality big trading firms have a staff on duty every week, regardless of vacations (they rotate throughout the summer) so there is always a trained staff manning the desks; they can’t afford not to.  2.  What has changed?  I mean has the Ukrainian war changed?  Has the economic outlook changed (inflation, interest rates, etc.)?  No and No.

What I’m getting at is let’s see IF the resent rally is anything to get happy about.  Low volume = low commitment; period.  Thanks but I’ll wait for at least some confirmation of a genuine rally before I get excited.  Let’s see what the sector table indicates.

I see the Energy sectors showing continued strength and maybe China is coming out of a funk, but that’s it.  No leadership from Technology or Finance or Consumer sectors.  Not a great vote of confidence.  Unless you’re day trading or in very short term trades, this remains an unfriendly market.  That could change, but not yet.  IMHO.

I remain in Energy and select Commodities, with a bit of Value exposure, plus Cash for the time being.  That could change, but I need to see more.  Have a good week.   ………….  Tom  …………

Price chart by MetaStock;  table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.