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A Hard Time September 17, 2022

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
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September 16, 2022 –  If you’re having a hard time figuring out this market you’re not alone.  There has been near record amounts of option hedge buying over the past couple of weeks by big institutions.  Since it’s VERY hard to liquidate their positions without affecting the prices in the market they try to reduce risk (of falling prices) by using option strategies.  Stats show many retail traders rushed in late July (about $2 billion) convinced that the bottom was in; boy did they get burned !

click on chart to enlarge

Friday was a day for September options to expire.  Monday we’ll get a chance to see just how many contracts closed out (expired) and how many just got “rolled forward” into the October month.  That will be an indication of how confident the “big guys/gals” are about the future.  I doubt that there will be a surge of optimism since the next FED meeting will wrap up on September 21.  Make no mistake . . . it’s all about recession fears and earnings, and interest rates give a hint about those key metrics.  The FedEx announcement of removing forward earnings guidance on Thursday put fear back into the market.

Another thing to watch is the US Dollar.  It’s very toppy now.  If the Dollar falls, the markets tend to go up, if it remains strong or higher, well . . . we could very well see lower prices.  My totally guess about the next couple of weeks is the interest rates go higher, recession fears rekindle, and we head toward the previous lows.  Just an opinion; we have to trade the market in front of us and not rely of opinions.

The Short-Term Sector Strength table is below –

Notice the “lack of green color” there.  When the Bear Treasury Bond and US$ are at the top that is not a good sign.  I remain heavy in Cash and trying to remain patient and objective about what I see.  This will end, the question is when.  Have a good week.          …………..  Tom  …………

Price chart by MetaStock; table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

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