Special Risk Capital Management LLC

This May Take Some Time February 25, 2023

February 24, 2023 –  Earnings season is winding down with a mixed bag.  Generally earnings were OK but the forward guidance was poor; i.e. the expectations of poor earnings in the future.   This along with continued concerns that inflation may not be under control and high interest rates will persist, has put a damper on the recent rally.

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We broke out of the trading range in early February and that’s a ‘Sign of Strength’.  But now we’re back in the range that was established in mid-November, 2022.  This “backing off” could be what Wyckoff called a ‘Last Point of Supply’ (11223 level) and a lunching point going forward . . . or . . . a retreat back into the trading range.  If price continues to fall below 10805, well then, the market is in serious trouble and ‘This May Take Some Time’ to recover.  There are two camps: a) the low is in and b) we’re headed back toward the October low.  In any case there really hasn’t been much progress since the early Fall of 2022.

There is a lot of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and ultra-short term options trading that added excessive volatility to this market structure.  I’m not seeing much long term money coming back in right now.  And yes, this is a News Driven Market, whether it’s geo-political or economic, it’s just not a stable environment right now.

The Short Term Sector Strength table –

I note the strength of the US Dollar (not bullish for US stocks) and interest rates beginning to inch back up again.  Take Care and have a good week.   ………….  Tom  …………….

Price chart by MetaStock; table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.