Special Risk Capital Management LLC

Improving Slooowly March 4, 2023

March 3, 2023  The overall market underpinnings are improving, but slowly.   Last week I talked about a fall back and we got it.  I was expecting a little bit more, but so be it. 

Click on Chart to Enlarge It

The move up mid-day on Thursday was driven primarily on “FED Speak” about tapering interest rates and the Friday follow though was likely due to Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO).  But . . .  what has actually changed?  Retail sales are reported as slow, interest rates have not been cut and inflation is stubbornly high.  So right now I’m just a little skeptical until I see continued upwards price action and increasing volume.   I revert to my phrase “This Is Going To Take A While”; referring to the economy improving slowly.  The dream of a V shaped bottom, or anything like it, with a blast off back to new highs is just that.  A dream.

Chart structure wise we do have a higher swing low and that’s good, but not a confirming higher high just yet.  There is some “risk on” buying in Small Cap stocks and overall breath of advancing stocks is improving.  Lastly, general seasonality is positive for the stock market going into the Spring, so we have a tail wind for a couple of months.

The Short Term Sector Strength table is shown below –

So let’s observe the action next week.  Do we continue higher with volume coming in (buyers), or is this just a false breakout of a defined trading range?   With the market being driven by short term news and options activity I’m just a little cautious.

Have a good week.       ……….  Tom  ………..

Price chart by MetaStock; & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.