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Up Trend Continues October 21, 2017

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Oct. 20, 2017 – The chart below clearly shows tht this up trend is intact.  Sentiment, Money Flow and Volume Flow remain bullish.  Prices remain in this upward trend channel, though at the top of that channel.  Risk for a correction down to  at least the lower trend channel is high and logical.  This market is optimistic and over bought.

But, it can still go higher.  I always have to remind folks that correction begin at “all time highs”, not at “all time lows”.  I think it’s wise to be “cautious” at the same time as being fully invested.  It just makes good sense.  Here’s a few sectors that I like and are showing strength in this environment:

That’s it for now. With modest volume and prices at the top, folks are buying, but not “hand over fist”.  Optimistic, yes . . . . but let’s not be blind to what potential is out there.  Have a good week.     …….  Tom  ……..

Slow Progress October 14, 2017

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Oct. 13, 2017 – Another busy week, but not much (new) is happening.  The markets are progressing higher though at a slower rate.  That “breather” may be good; it gives it a chance to catch up.

We note the similar situation to the past few weeks. Moving higher toward the top of the trend channel.  This market is “fully valued” if not “over valued”, but up is up.  I note the continued decrease in volume.  I remain on the look out for an Up Thrust in price on low volume.  So far, no thrust higher (wide range bar) with a low close.

Semiconductors, Japan, Basic Materials and Internet stocks are on my radar right now.  (I also note that Emerging Markets are reviving; something to watchout for.)  That’s ’bout it for now.  Have a good week.        ……….  Tom  ………..

(chart by MetaStock; used with permission)

The Climb Higher Continues October 8, 2017

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Oct. 6, 2017 – The markets continue their climb higher, but note that prices are approaching that top trend channel line.  That’s the area where we’ve encountered corrections back toward the lower trend line.  One item that may confirm this slowing is the drop off in volume (lower pane).

Money Flow, Volume Flow and Sentiment indicators (top panes) continue to be bullish. And so I remain invested, but watchful for signs of weakening.  I’ve shifted the “UTAD” label up and these higher prices on lower volume could confirm that Up Thrust.  Still a little early though.

The table below shows sector strength.

I like select stocks in Banking, Oil & Gas, Semiconductors, Industrials and Basic Materials.  That’s it for now.  Have a good week !  …  Tom  …

Market in Consolidation September 30, 2017

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Sept. 29, 2017 – Uber busy (again), so I’ll get to the point(s).  This market sure appears to be in a consolidation / re-accumulation phase.  Yes, I know I labeled the chart as Distribution, but I tend to always be on the lookout for a worse case scenario.  The BC (buying climax) was weak and the UTAD (up thrust after distribution) has yet to even form.  But . .  . went I see market trends begin to soften, I get extra cautious.

The chart above does show strength, or at least a continuation of the last up trend.   We may be beginning a break out to the horizontal channel that started in mid-July, but that’s just a “maybe” for now.  Money Flow, Volume Flow and Sentiment are good, so let’s be patient here.

The pie chart above shows the % of stocks that are considered “Strong” or “Weak” based on their 20 day moving average.  There’s a lot of green up there, which means that most stocks are at least participating in the current up trend, even though it may be a mild trend.

The table above shows us where the current short term strength is.  Ideally, this is where we should be holding our “long” positions.  I hope this quick analysis helps.  Hopefully I’ll have more time later, though that might be a few weeks from now.

Have a good week.        ………….  Tom  …………

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

Market at Top of Trading Range – Struggling September 23, 2017

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Sept. 22, 2017 –  Really not much is happening in the world markets.  The NASDAQ Composite Index (below) shows us that we remain in broad trading trade that started in mid-July.  Those blue channel lines are nearly horizontal.

I note that conditions are generally positive, so I remain invested, but I also see that Volume Flow and the volume bars at the lower part of the chart are dropping.  There just doesn’t seem to be as much interest in adding to positions right now.  Technology has slowed, Developing Markets (Latin America & China) have also slowed their advances.  I’m still on the watch for an Up Thrust higher on weak volume to flush out the last of the buyers, but this is more likely a Consolidation pattern.

Some of the previously weak sectors like Energy and Healthcare have shown some rotation back into them.  The question is whether this is a market sector rotation (coming out of one sector and going into another) or just a general slowing down of activity / consolidation.  If this low volume continues without Index prices dropping it would indicate Consolidation.  And the market waits.

Not much exciting to review.  Have a good week.     ………  Tom  ………

Rolling Higher but at Resistance September 16, 2017

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Sept. 15, 2107 – Once again, I’ll going to keep this brief due to being very busy after the hurricane Irma with clean up; part of the “deal” with living close to the coast.  (Don’t worry, not major damage, just cleaning sand and water off of a “floodable” area . . . but it’s still work.)

Looking at the chart above we see that the market has returned to previous highs and the “long term” trend channel remains up.  All of the indicators shown are positive but one must also note that we’re at (classical) “resistance” in the price structure.  The volume on Friday does not give us much of a clue due to it being options expiration (the 3rd Friday of every month).  In the grand scheme, we should be invested . . . but let’s also be watchful as well since we’re “at the top”.

We see the previous leaders in Biotech and Technology coming back into their roles, but it appears that the overall leadership is narrowing.  Looking at the stocks in the very broad S&P 1500 index we see a fairly positive outlook.

S&P 1500, % of stocks in Accumulation / Distribution:

S&P 1500, % of stocks in a strong / weak structure:

So these charts sure look positive, thus we should be invested.  Where?  I like Biotech, Latin America, China, Healthcare, some select Oil Service companies as well as select Basic Material stocks.  Pharmaceuticals and Semiconductors are coming on strong as well.

That’s it for this week.  have a good week !   ……. Tom  ……

P.S.  If there is an area that you’d like me to cover, drop me a comment in the area at the top of this post.

chart by MetaStock; pie charts by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com; used with permission.

Unsteady Markets September 10, 2017

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Sept. 8, 2017 – Due to the hurricane, I’ve had to evacuate, so this will be short.

We’re still in an up trend, both short term and long term channels are either up or prices are above the upper line.  6480 remains resistance and 6216 is support..  What concerns me is the potential for a “double top” / Up Thrust in the price structure.  Money Flow is positive but lacks conviction.  So, I remain invested but still cautious about this extended market.

Here’s what sections are doing:

I prefer Developing Markets, Healthcare and select Technology sectors too.

Have a good week.       ……………..  Tom  ……………….

Weak Market Looking for Direction(s) August 26, 2017

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Aug. 25, 2017 – I’m very busy over the next couple of weeks, so this will be short and to the point(s).  This market continues to show signs of weakness in the form of “lack of buyers”.  No major moves to the exits just yet, but any bad news will likely change that quickly.

Looking at the chart below, we see lower swing highs and lower swing lows; plus Money Flow and Volume Flow are headed down or are weak.  Market Sentiment remains Bearish.

Note in the lower pane that volume continues to be below average; just not much reason to buy in here.  Without buyers, the markets will go into consolidation, and IF there are sellers, it will go lower.  Basic “Supply & Demand” stuff.  I am watching the 6216 support level (in red), but have a feeling that we could easily slip towards the 6141 level easily.

Looking at the stocks in the broad S&P 1500 Index (below), we see that nearly half are stuck in the “Neutral” price strength area, with more in the “Weak” area than in the “Strong” area.

Make no mistake.  This market is weak and looking for direction . . . either up or down.  It is very susceptible to news, so we must be extra careful.  I have sold some weaker holdings and have add a small “hedge” (i.e. bear fund) to help control risk.  Hedges can be taken off quickly if needed and I just look at them as “insurance” against “bad stuff” happening.

Have a good week.       ………..  Tom  ………..

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

At Pivot Low, Next Week Important August 19, 2017

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Aug. 18, 2017 – A quick look at the price chart below shows how the NASDAQ Composite Index closed on Friday, right near the previous swing low.  We have two lower swing highs and now two lower swing lows.

That 6216 close on Friday is just a little ominous in that IF we’re expecting a turn around, it should happen on Monday.  Otherwise the next target lower is the 6141 level.  That 6141 level is where buyers have previously come into the market (we’ve already ‘blown through” the 6303 support level).  I’ve spotted in a few important Wyckoff turning points; these would indicate further market weakness.

Also in the chart above: Sentiment is bearish, as is Money Flow and Volume Flow.  We’re entering into a period of the year where the stock market is typically weak; late August through early October.  I’m not a big fan of seasonality, preferring to observe and follow the trends as they develop.

Selling also dominates the S&P 1500 index stocks.  The pie chart below shows the number (i.e. %) of them in Distribution (red / selling) and Accumulation (green / buying).  There is far more red than green right now.

A look at the sector strength table below shows a move toward more “defensive” stock sectors.  The previous market leaders of the Technology sectors have moved down in the table.  In the short term, this is a time for either hedging (via “bear funds”) or staying close to an exit plan if necessary.

I’m seeing more strength in Emerging Market countries for the time being, as well as Utilities, Telecom and other defensive sectors.  I’d wait until Monday afternoon (after the weekend investors place their sell orders) before I’d jump to any conclusions, but it sure looks like a market that’s headed lower.  At least another 3 to 5 % next week.

Have a good week.        ………. Tom ………..

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

Expected Decline; Time to Be Careful August 11, 2017

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Aug. 11, 2017 – OK, we’ve had a quick drop but only a minor one so far.  Our first support level of 6303 on the NASDAQ Composite Index was broken on the close on Thursday.  That gets our attention.  But . . . notice how “average” the volume was (lower pane) and then on Friday (8-11-17) volume dropped off even more.  Obviously we’re not seeing panic selling or a mad rush to the doors.  And this was on a Friday (before a weekend); traders were rather comfortable holding on to stocks over the weekend.

Where we’ll get much more concerned is if prices breaking the 641 level on a close and / or volume picking up on a wide spread down bar.  Then it’s time to hedge or sell.  For now I’ve just lightened up a little on holdings, paying more attention to weaker things that I hold.  Not surprising that Market Sentiment (top pane) and Volume Flow are negative.  Money Flow has turned down but remains above zero.  This confirms a lack of buyers, but not significant selling for the time being.

The number of stocks making up the S&P 1500 Index that are in Accumulation and Distribution (below) shows a fairly even split.  Again, not large amounts of selling at this time.

The Price Strength (below) shows a different picture, but confirms the idea that the weakness is caused by the lack of buyers.  If there are more sellers than buyers, prices will drop.  The amount of Red that we see far exceeds the green.  Prices are generally weak.

Looking at sector strength we see more defensive stock sectors moving to the top of the list, while previous leaders (technology based) have moved lower.  Since the general feeling is that stocks are over priced based on good earnings, but not great, this is likely a typical pause for re-accumulation of shares at a lower price.

Let’s hope that the conflict with North Korea is only an excuse to have a minor correction.  Speaking of sector strength, it appears that International stocks are fairing a little better right now.  I have cut back on % amounts to hold, but China, Latin America and Emerging Markets in general are looking to hold up rather well after making significant gains recently.

That’s all for now.  Watch that 6141 level and signs of volume increasing on any down days.  Otherwise, we’ll be patient and wait for a better time to redeploy our Cash.  Have a good week.     ……….  Tom  ……….

Chart by MetaStock; pie charts & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com; used with permission.

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