jump to navigation

Summer Doldrums ? August 11, 2018

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , ,
add a comment

Aug. 10, 2018 – This is another short post as I’m winding up my “road trip”.  A short look at the chart below shows some very narrow range bars from Tuesday through Friday of last week.  We’ve bounced off the previous swing high and now that swing high is resistance to future price increases. That resistance is at the 7933 level on the NASDAQ Composite Index (green line).

Support of prices are at the 7604 level (red line).  These are our “lines in the sand” and represent where buyers and sellers have previously taken a stand.  I own personal feeling is that this market has entered into a trading range, a.k.a. the summer doldrums”.  Hey, it’s August and many of the big guys are on vacation.  Likely not much will happen until after Labor Day.   . . . . . unless a big news item comes along.  This administration appears to be trying to solve problems by edict . . . . and that doesn’t appear to be working out well in the short term.  (i.e. tariffs)

Where I see some strength is in Pharma, short China, short Gold, Wireless and Healthcare.  Banks and Financials bring up the rear.  So, let’s be a little patient for now, but be careful also.

That’s it for this week.  Have a good week.       ……………….  Tom  ……………

Weak Market – Waiting for Confirmation July 28, 2018

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , ,
add a comment

July 27, 2018 – Thursday and Friday showed us weak bars.  Does that mean the market will correct, and if so, how much ?  The answer is: Possibly.  My hedging indicator confirmed a possible weak market on mid week, but I will need confirmation of that on Monday.  If the market momentarily (a couple of hours) blimps down then recovers, that will negate the signal.  If it continues to go lower, then I will “buy insurance” and hedge (some) of my positions (i.e. buy a bear fund).

IF I had to predict, I’d say this is a short term weakness, with the NASDAQ going down to around the 7443 level (red line), which is also the lower level of the trend channel.  That would put us back to the late June swing lows.  From there we could ether expect buying coming back in at these lower prices, or a more severe drop.  Volume will confirm the price action.

In the longer term, this market doesn’t look too bad.  That’s one reason I doubt if we’re in for anything major.  Right now here’s how the stocks in the S&P 1500 Index are looking:

Price Strength –
Price Strength is fairly evenly distributed; no major issues of “over bought” which may indicate a major top.

Accumulation/Distribution –Accumulation is dominate; likely no major issues.

My philosophy is to error on the side of safely, so my hedge indicator is very sensitive to weakness and does NOT distinguish the level of weakness.  Thus I’ll watch Monday’s price action and volume closely.  As the saying goes “It’s better to be out wishing you were in, than in wishing that you were out.”

Have a good week, it could be interesting.    ………… Tom  …………

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

Caution Ahead July 22, 2018

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , , ,
add a comment

July 20, 2018 – I’m seeing the early stages of Caution beginning here.  No “Red Flags”, but just a “Heads Up” to pay extra attention to market action this week. The reasons are: lethargic Money Flow and the recent price / volume action.  Looking at the chart below I note narrow range bars (red ellipse; buying=selling demand) and very low volume (red arrow; much below the red 20 day average line).

Is this just a pause where there is equilibrium and hence little movement or is it Lack of Demand?  Either is possible but the classical chart pattern is a “Coil”, where prices go nowhere in a tight range only to breakout suddenly in one direction or another.  Personally, I’m favoring a Lack of Demand, which means a soft / lower market.  But as we’ve seen, any news item could break this equilibrium effect.

The table below shows what sectors are doing in the short term; what to favor and what to avoid right now.  I’m waiting for the market to move and IF it goes lower I won’t wait to lighten up my longs.  A touch below 7746 would concern me, likely back to a light hedge for protection.
That’s it for now.  Perhaps the “Summer Doldrums” have set in; or not.   Just a word of Caution for now.  Have a good week.   …..  Tom  …..

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

Continuation Upward July 15, 2018

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , ,
add a comment

July 13, 2108 – Last week it appeared that the NASDAQ Index might just but on the brink of tripping down.  This week that did not materialize and the (US) Indexes resumed the trend higher.  Interesting how this market shrugs off bad news.  One interesting point is that while Sentiment and Volume Flow have resumed positive, the Money Flow still is lagging.  Not a big deal, but it sure would be more comforting if all of these indicators were in sync.

Biotech, Healthcare and Technology stock seem to be leading the market upward.   International, especially Emerging Market indexes continue to be weak.  Support levels for the NASDAQ Composite Index are at 7616 (near) and 7443 (major); these are my “lines in the sand” that would trigger concern if the index closes below them.

The broad S&P 1500 stocks are doing well as show below (more green than red):

% of Stocks Price Strength –

% of Stocks in Accumulation or Distribution –

So I’ve backed off my light hedge and back to following this market.  The current direction appears to be up, and so I follow.  Have a good week.      ……..  Tom  …….

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

“On The Cusp” July 7, 2018

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , ,
add a comment

July 5, 2018 – This was a shortened holiday trading week not to mention a prime vacation period in the US.  Thus market activity / volumes are down.  Low volume markets tend to amplify moves; think of it was “a little goes a long way” in moving prices.  Both the Volume and Money Flow indicators below were slow to move even though price action appeared to be fairly good, especially on Friday.  Main Support level moved up to7421 on the NASDAQ Composite Index.

My sensitive market indicators show that we’re “on the cusp” of changing from short term mildly bearish to mildly bullish.  Technically we’re still in the bearish range though a nice move upward on Monday will change that.  There’s so much in the news that just about anything can pull this market in either direction.  Trade Wars, Atlantic Alliances, North Korea etc. will be the topics next week; there are a bunch.

That said, I find it interesting looking at short term sector strength (table below) that most of the top sector are considered to be defensive in nature.  Telcom, Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, etc. are near the top of the list.

Biotech had a good day on Friday with the announcement by BioGen of a promising drug that slows Alzheimer’s.  That sector was off to the races.  Tech is showing some life, but it is still too early to be sure that it’s a real move.

That’s about it for this short holiday week.  Let’s observe the markets this week on price action and see if volume picks up steadily (spikes concern me; shows that sellers are there too).          ……………  Tom  ……………

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

Shifted into Neutral June 30, 2018

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , , ,
add a comment

June 29, 2018 – As talked about last week, if the market showed significant weakness on Monday (or a few days later) I’d begin to hedge my positions.  And on Monday the markets gapped down fairly hard; note circled area below on the price chart.

Since then, market participants have been trying to figure out IF this is “the correction” for the summer or just a minor blip driven by trade wars fears.  I find it interesting that the low last week stopped just 2 points from the Wyckoff resistance line (green line) which is at 7421.  “Resistance is now support” as many technicians say.  However the big level is the Wyckoff support level (red line) at 7354.

I think that folks are still trying to determine just how serious this down move is.  Case in point is the Price Strength of all stocks in the S&P 1500 Index.  The pie chart below shows over half of them in a weakened state, then roughly a third Neutral, the remaining Strong.

But . . . . Distribution of shares (Selling) has not picked up.  The pie chart below shows nearly an even balance between Accumulation (buying), Distribution (selling) and Neutral status.  So Far, we’re seeing a lack of buyers instead of significant selling.  But, that could and will change if this market goes much lower.  In that case I’ll increase my hedging to “full” by using a bear fund to offset portfolio losses; i.e. synthetic Cash neutral.  Stock will be sold as stops are hit or if they are weaker than the market (indexes); just like normal.

Last point is to look at sector strength.  I’m generally seeing more defensive sectors moving toward the top of the list in this short term evaluation of strength.

The bottom line is to protect your profits & honor stops as they are hit.  Watch key support levels and be especially careful if volume picks up on down bars.  So far, so “OK” (not “good, just “OK”), but this market is not in the mood for surprises or bad news.  With all of the computer driven algo programs running, there could be a rush for the exits.

Have a good week.       ………………..  Tom  …………….

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

Market Backs Off at Previous High June 10, 2018

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , , ,
add a comment

June 8, 2018 – Not much progress this past week.  The market appears to be pausing at the previous swing high of 7610 that happened on March 12 (dashed blue line below).  That’s not a surprise with all of the potential international news happening after Friday’s close; the G-7 meeting and North Korea next week.  No need to put “new money” into this market just yet.

But the market remains strong and positive.  Sentiment, Money & Volume Flows are all good.  We remain in the upward price channel and the support price line (red) is now at 7354; that’s where “problems” will most likely come to bear.  So, until something out of the blue happens, we monitor which sectors are strongest in this market.  The table below indicates where the strength lies in the short term. (color coded by percentile; green is strongest, etc.)

That’s about it for now.  I’m nearly fully invested but watching (always) for weakness; not much there now.  Have a good week.  ……….  Tom  ………..

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

Market Lift Off June 3, 2018

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , , ,
add a comment

June 1, 2018 – OK, we had a break out higher this week.  The 7421 level (resistance) was broken and we also have a new support level at 7354.  “Support” is the low where the “last buying” came into the market (a.k.a. a Wyckoff “Significant Bar”).  IF, the 7354 level gets broken (on a close) it would likely signal a change in character for this market; especially if were to come on higher than normal volume.  But, for the time being Market Sentiment is bullish as are the Money and Volume Flow indicators.

For the time being, we’ve got to continue being invested.  That doesn’t mean we can’t rotate toward stronger stocks in stronger sector though.  What I do find unusual is that small cap and NASDAQ stocks are generally doing better than the large cap stocks (i.e. S&P 500 & Dow Industrials).  The tax changes and regulation changes are now been factored into price.  What is next to drive prices higher?  It got to be corporate profits and positive geo-political news.  Europe (Italy and German banks) are having a tough time and that has spilled over to Latin America.  Something to monitor.  The North Korean, China trade and European tariff issues remain as well.

Looking at the stocks in the broad S&P 1500 index (below) we generally see a fair amount of green and a minimal amount of red.  These longer term indicators are pointing in a positive direction.

S&P 1500 Stocks Price Strength –

S&P 1500 Stocks in Accumulation / Distribution –That’s it for this week.  Take Care.    ………..  Tom  ……….

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

Market Meets Resistance May 19, 2018

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , , , ,
add a comment

May 18, 2018 – The market (as measured by the broad NASDAQ Composite Index) met resistance near the 7421 level (blue line).  All week long it hovered around that level and just couldn’t break through it decisively. Remember that this level is determined as a (Wyckoff) “Significant Bar” on a weekly scale; that’s the weekly high where selling last appeared.  Since the market “balked” the last time it was there it is significant to note and monitor.

This is not a bad omen, it just means that in an average market one would expect the price action to slow before breaking one way or the other.  The short term indicators remain positive from Market Sentiment to the Money & Volume Flows.  In order for the market to move higher we’d like to see a Sign of Strength (SOS) which would be a daily bar with a wide range, closing near the top on increasing volume.  That would indicate buyers stepping in.  Attention is given to the fact that as we approach summer it is a typical slow / weak season.  I don’t subscribe to the phrase “Sell in May and Go Away”, but summer is usually slow.  We could just bounce around in this range for a few months; that would not be surprising.

Looking at the market health from a different perspective, we note the number (i.e. percent of) stocks in the S&P 1500 Index that have strong price action and those in an Accumulation, Distribution or just Neutral phase.

Price Strength –In Accumulation / Distribution –Sectors that are doing well include Energy (Oil & Services), US Small Cap Index, China, Internet and Basic Materials.  Latin America is one of the weakest areas,  That’s about it for now.  Have a good week.          …………  Tom  ……….

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

Breakout Up, but One More Hurtle May 13, 2018

Posted by Tom in Thoughts.
Tags: , , ,
add a comment

May 11, 2018 – A quick look at the chart below confirms an upward breakout.  Sentiment, Money Flow, Volume Flow and Price Strength are all positive.  But more important are the closes above previous Support levels.  But . . one more hoop to jump through is the 7405 level, just above Fridays bar (light green line).

The 7405 level was the last level were Buying Stopped on a weekly basis.  That level was generated back in late March.  With that small caveat I’m “comfortably long”; that’s “invested but not aggressively so”.  The thing I’m looking for is where the market leadership is located.  During the post election run upwards Technology, Semiconductors and Consumer Goods were the darlings.  Tech and Oil have returned to leadership but I sense some hesitation.  Banks, Financials and Small Cap stocks in general are showing signs of strength and that would help maintain confidence in any continued upward movement.

Earnings have been good, but with the massive corporate tax cut they should be.  For now the market is looking way past this reporting period.  A run in Basic Materials would signal a longer term bullish look for the world economies.  For now here’s how sectors are looking in the short term:

Looking for leaders in the “green sectors” at the moment.  Also of note is the recent strength in China stocks.  Have a good week.  ….  Tom  ….

Price chart by MetaStock; pie chart & table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.

%d bloggers like this: