Special Risk Capital Management LLC

Waiting For Superman ? November 7, 2014

Looking at the chart below, we see that after that gap / jump up last Friday (6 bars ago), there really hasn’t been much movement in the broad NASDAQ Composite Index.  At the top we see “Money Flow” fairly stagnant and Market Sentiment remains “Bullish”.

The big boost expected from the Republican victories in the US Mid-term elections was rather “whimp-ish” at best.   Up until this week the market had been on a tear upwards, so it makes sense for it to slow down and “catch its breath” for a while; “consolidate gains” as they say.  Volume is fairly average, so there aren’t many clues as to what direction the next move will be.  Seems like the market is just waiting for something; perhaps Superman.  Some one or some thing (likely news driven) to be a stimulus for movement in one direction or another.

We’re at new highs right now, so “Where is the risk?”  This appears to be a “re-accumulation” stepping stone within an overall Accumulation Structure, but a sudden move higher on light volume could form an UpThrust and that would be Bearish.  Let’s pay attention to market leadership now.  Are the Biotechs and Semiconductors resting or is there a sector rotation toward Financials starting?  It’s a little too early to tell right now.  We may need another week to indicator what’s going on.  Retail and Technology have been a mixed bags; some higher, some lower.

Drawing a steep trend line upward is probably not a good idea, so I’m going to wait a week on that.  Have a good week and mind that price gap.  It may get filled before Superman arrives.       ……..  Tom  ……….