Special Risk Capital Management LLC

At That Point . . Again April 2, 2015

The market is at that point . . the price level where it has bounced around before, between 4905 (top) and 4810 (bottom).  But “the third time is the charm” and we’re in the region for the third time since the beginning of March.  Money Flow (the histogram at the top) is pretty benign, showing more lack of interest than buying or selling.  Market Sentiment remains negative, but that’s only because of the last leg down and there’s nothing to make investors very bullish.

So what next?  A break below 4810-ish would be bearish, especially if volume shows investors running for the exits.  A more likely scenario is a trading range with not much movement either way.  The markets need something to drive them up, and I don’t see that in the form of earnings or extremely positive economic news.  Oil is weak and the US Dollar is strong.  Corporate earnings are just “OK”.  This continues to be a stock pickers market with stock selection key to allowing a portfolio to advance.

I won’t post charts of Accumulation / Distribution, broad Price Strength or Top Sectors, since they are in my monthly newsletter under that tab above.  So you can check that out there as you wish.  I’m seeing some signs of strength in select International markets, so keep them in mind as the Spring progresses.  They have been on the back burner for quite some time, but that could change here as the US markets are looking more “fully valued” currently.  Opportunity may show itself elsewhere.

U.S. markets are closed this Friday for Good Friday.  Have a Happy Easter & don’t eat to much chocolate.  🙂     ……..  Tom  ……….