Special Risk Capital Management LLC

Beak Out with a Backup February 12, 2023

February 10, 2023 –  Last week not a whole lot progress but a whole lot of up & down action.  A few things are starting to emerge: market breath is improving; more stocks are generally going higher than lower.  We have broken out of the last trading range, but not decisively just yet. 

I’ve drawn 2 scenarios on the chart.  The first is the Green idea where we drop a little lower before resuming a general up trend.  In Wyckoff terms that would be a backup to the Last Point of Support (LPS), which would be around 11492 on the NASDAQ Composite Index.  Next is the Red idea which would call out a failed breakout and a fall back into the trading range.  I am slightly favoring the Green scenario right now; but staying flexible.

click on chart to enlarge

I do note that in the “big picture” there is significant resistance to any price movement near the 1300 level above, so that would likely be a near term target and with a pause to consolidate.

What could be a big factor next week is the CPI report on Tuesday.  The market is expecting a ½% rise for January / a 6% yearly rate.  That would be OK, showing that inflation could be slowly coming down.  Much of anything above that would likely throw cold water on any market rally.  And of course earnings continue this week, so that could surprise too.

The Short Term Sector Strength table is shown below –

That’s about it for now.  This market is news driven with many issues still up in the air.  I have taken small positions out and looking for actual confirmation, especially on the weekly time frame.   Have a good week.       …………  Tom  ………..

Price chart by MetaStock; table by http://www.HighGrowthStock.com. Used with permission.